AI doomsday predictions are running way ahead of actual evidence — productivity stats are barely budged, and the Yale Budget Lab found zero measurable labor market disruption since ChatGPT launched. The loudest voices forecasting mass job destruction happen to be the same people selling AI products. Existential risk probability estimates aren't science; they're vibes dressed up as math, spanning orders of magnitude with no grounded methodology behind them.
AI governance can't wait for cleaner data — these systems are already destabilizing mental health, flooding platforms with state-sponsored disinformation and outpacing democratic institutions in real time. Apple's own research shows advanced reasoning models collapse under complexity, yet they're being deployed in law, health care and national security with zero meaningful oversight. The G7 has a narrow window to build real guardrails before manipulative AI becomes impossible to contain.
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