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"If the election were to be held tomorrow, his prospects of reelection would be slim."

"There is a 40% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."

"There is a 46% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"There is a 48% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"Lula’s reelection chances are right around 50%. It’s close to a coinflip."

"There is a 50% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."

"There is a 50% chance Lula will win Brazil's 2026 presidential election."

"There is a 52.40% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

"There is a 68% chance that Lula will win the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election."

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Brazil's Supreme Court convicted former lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro on Tuesday of coercion, sentencing him in absentia to four years and two months in prison for lobbying the U.S. government to interfere in his father's coup trial.

Brazil's Supreme Court convicted former lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro on Tuesday of coercion, sentencing him in absentia to four years and two months in prison for lobbying the U.S. government to interfere in his father's coup trial.

Justices determined that Eduardo Bolsonaro illegally pressured U.S. authorities to impose sanctions and tariffs on Brazil to influence the trial of his father, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup.

Guardian

Justices determined that Eduardo Bolsonaro illegally pressured U.S. authorities to impose sanctions and tariffs on Brazil to influence the trial of his father, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw both cases, stated that Eduardo Bolsonaro's role as a federal lawmaker was "not to lobby overseas against his own country." De Moraes and his wife were sanctioned by the U.S. government in July last year.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw both cases, stated that Eduardo Bolsonaro's role as a federal lawmaker was "not to lobby overseas against his own country." De Moraes and his wife were sanctioned by the U.S. government in July last year.

Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil last July, citing Jair Bolsonaro's prosecution. The U.S. also sanctioned Justice de Moraes, but both measures were later withdrawn as relations between Trump and Brazilian President Lula improved.

Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil last July, citing Jair Bolsonaro's prosecution. The U.S. also sanctioned Justice de Moraes, but both measures were later withdrawn as relations between Trump and Brazilian President Lula improved.

Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has lived in Texas since February 2025, called the conviction "baseless and senseless" on social media, saying he was never formally served and learned of the case only through media reports.

Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has lived in Texas since February 2025, called the conviction "baseless and senseless" on social media, saying he was never formally served and learned of the case only through media reports.

The conviction bars Eduardo Bolsonaro from holding public office in Brazil for eight years. He had been campaigning for his brother, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, who is expected to challenge Lula in October's presidential election.

The conviction bars Eduardo Bolsonaro from holding public office in Brazil for eight years. He had been campaigning for his brother, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, who is expected to challenge Lula in October's presidential election.

Brazil Convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro for Coercion

Brazil Convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro for Coercion

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Brazil Convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro for Coercion

Brazil Convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro for Coercion

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