NOAA: El Niño Has Officially Arrived

NOAA: Declares El Niño Forming,Has SuperOfficially Event Likely by 2027Arrived

Is this an imminent climate-fueled threat or are the alarming forecasts irresponsible?

Published 5 days ago

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Above: A forecast map displayed at the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Switzerland, on June 2. Image credit: Fabrice Coffrini/Getty Images

The Spin

A Super El Niño is coming, and with the NOAA giving it a 63% chance of becoming one of the strongest events since 1950, it's virtually guaranteed to set a new global temperature record next year. This isn't just a weather story, as strong El Niños devastate economies, trigger droughts and fuel wildfires across multiple continents. With the background climate already hotter than at any time in recorded history, the knock-on effects could be unprecedented.

Daily Mail CNN

The Super El Niño panic is getting way ahead of the actual science. Most reliable dynamical models point to a weak-to-moderate El Niño at best, and spring forecasts are historically the least skillful — meaning the breathless headlines are built on shaky ground. Producers and the public are better served by waiting for post-July data before making major decisions based on fear-driven forecasts circulating on social media.

Cliff Mass Weather Blog Western Ag Network

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that the average global surface air temperature in 2026 will be at least 1.46°C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline, according to the Metaculus prediction community.