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"He's doomed, he will be gone - I thought he'd be gone by now. I was wrong. But I do think he's got just a few months in him."

"There is a 6% chance Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026."

"84% of bets back a 2026 exit for Keir Starmer."

"There is a 62% chance Keir Starmer will be out before Sep 1, 2026."

"There's a 32% chance Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister in 2026."

"43% think that Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of the year."

"These things turn around very, very fast and anyone making predictions in the current atmosphere is a fool."

"As much as MPs might want him to go, he is unlikely to acquiesce."

"There is only a 64% likelihood that he will still be in Downing Street by 31 December 2026."

“I will be sitting in this seat by 2027 and if this long-form interview works, we can try it again in January of next year as well.”

Will Keir Starmer Remain Prime Minister Through to the End of 2026?

UK Defence Secretary John Healey resigned Thursday, saying the government's Defence Investment Plan "falls well short of what is required for defence and the country at this dangerous time" and that the Treasury had been "unwilling" to commit sufficient resources.

John Healey

UK Defence Secretary John Healey resigned Thursday, saying the government's Defence Investment Plan "falls well short of what is required for defence and the country at this dangerous time" and that the Treasury had been "unwilling" to commit sufficient resources.

Healey revealed the plan would raise defence spending by just 0.08 percentage points of GDP by 2030 — from 2.6% to 2.68% — well below the 3% he argued was necessary, despite the government's existing commitment to reach 3.5% of GDP by 2035.

Healey revealed the plan would raise defence spending by just 0.08 percentage points of GDP by 2030 — from 2.6% to 2.68% — well below the 3% he argued was necessary, despite the government's existing commitment to reach 3.5% of GDP by 2035.

Healey said he only received the full Defence Investment Plan financial settlement on Monday and criticized it as "backloaded," warning the funding structure failed to address urgent operational pressures in the first two years.

Healey said he only received the full Defence Investment Plan financial settlement on Monday and criticized it as "backloaded," warning the funding structure failed to address urgent operational pressures in the first two years.

The resignation is the second cabinet departure in weeks, following former Health Secretary Wes Streeting's exit, and comes days before a by-election in Makerfield and ahead of a NATO summit in Turkey in early July.

The resignation is the second cabinet departure in weeks, following former Health Secretary Wes Streeting's exit, and comes days before a by-election in Makerfield and ahead of a NATO summit in Turkey in early July.

Healey had requested around £18bn from the Treasury for defence, but Chancellor Rachel Reeves resisted committing above £12bn for weeks before Starmer pressed for a settlement of approximately £15bn, partly funded by 1% capital budget cuts across other departments.

Healey had requested around £18bn from the Treasury for defence, but Chancellor Rachel Reeves resisted committing above £12bn for weeks before Starmer pressed for a settlement of approximately £15bn, partly funded by 1% capital budget cuts across other departments.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said the delay to the Defence Investment Plan was "fast becoming a national disgrace," while Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said Starmer's "premiership is falling apart" following Healey's departure.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said the delay to the Defence Investment Plan was "fast becoming a national disgrace," while Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said Starmer's "premiership is falling apart" following Healey's departure.

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Healey quits as defence secretary in row with Starmer over military spending

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