Inflation at a three-year high of 4.2% is wiping out wage gains, —and with wages growing at just 3.4%, Americans are losing ground fast. Energy costs are driving the squeeze, and gas, food, electricity and medical care are all hammering middle-class budgets. This is a direct result of a prolonged conflict that was supposed to be resolved quickly, and everyday Americans are paying the price.
The inflation spike has peaked and the broader economy tells a far more complete story — 265,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.7%, manufacturing expanding for four straight months and median household income up $3,000. Core goods inflation is rolling over with minimal second-order effects, and deregulation plus domestic energy production are actively pushing prices down. Betting against this economy has been a losing proposition every single time.
There's a 57.2% chance that the July 2026 U.S. CPI-U 12-month inflation rate will be at least 4.0%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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