U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May, even as inflation squeezed consumers

Financial Times

US economy blew past expectations to add 172,000 jobs in May

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Job market finally shows signs of life, adds 172,000 jobs in May

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CNBC

U.S. payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, much more than expected; unemployment at 4.3%

Jan Hatzius

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RSM US

Hady Farag

Moody's Analytics

Ernst & Young

"Our base case is no recession for 2026."

"There is a 24% chance that a recession will begin in the U.S. in 2026."

"We have shaved our 12-month US recession probability from 30% to 25% as economic activity has held up well and our financial conditions index has eased back below pre-war levels."

"We estimate a 30% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, up from 20% before the war."

"Economists placed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 33%, up from 27% in the January survey."

"Looking at the economy, J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a 35% probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026, and sticky inflation will likely remain a prevailing theme."

"We now place the probability of recession at 40%, with risks skewed higher if the conflict intensifies."

"Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years."

“If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid.”

“People are preparing themselves for the fact that we are already in a recession now or that there is a high likelihood we will soon be in one.”

Will the US Economy Enter a Recession in 2026?

The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double the 85,000 forecast by economists, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Hiring figures for March and April were also revised up by a combined 93,000.

Guardian

The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double the 85,000 forecast by economists, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Hiring figures for March and April were also revised up by a combined 93,000.

Job gains in May were led by leisure and hospitality, which added 70,000 jobs — well above the sector's average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months. Health care and local government also posted sharp increases.

Job gains in May were led by leisure and hospitality, which added 70,000 jobs — well above the sector's average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months. Health care and local government also posted sharp increases.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.4% year-over-year in May, the lowest rate since 2021, leaving wage growth below the April inflation reading of 3.8%, which was its highest level in three years.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.4% year-over-year in May, the lowest rate since 2021, leaving wage growth below the April inflation reading of 3.8%, which was its highest level in three years.

The May jobs report was the first released under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, appointed by President Trump in January. Economists widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its June 16-17 meeting, though traders priced in a more than 60% chance of a rate hike by October.

The May jobs report was the first released under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, appointed by President Trump in January. Economists widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its June 16-17 meeting, though traders priced in a more than 60% chance of a rate hike by October.

In March, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 178,000, following a revised decline of 133,000 in February. Job gains occurred in health care, construction and transportation and warehousing, while federal government employment fell by 18,000.

In March, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 178,000, following a revised decline of 133,000 in February. Job gains occurred in health care, construction and transportation and warehousing, while federal government employment fell by 18,000.

Federal government employment has declined by 355,000, or 11.8%, since reaching a peak in October 2024. The transportation and warehousing sector is also down 139,000 jobs since its peak in February 2025.

Federal government employment has declined by 355,000, or 11.8%, since reaching a peak in October 2024. The transportation and warehousing sector is also down 139,000 jobs since its peak in February 2025.

U.S. Adds 172K Jobs in May, Doubling Forecasts

U.S. Adds 172K Jobs in May, Doubling Forecasts

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Turnquist

Metaculus

Hatzius

US

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Young

Analytics

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Farag

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U.S. Adds 172K Jobs in May, Doubling Forecasts

U.S. Adds 172K Jobs in May, Doubling Forecasts

The Controversies

Turnquist

Metaculus

Hatzius

US

JPMorgan

Young

Analytics

Zandi

Farag

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