UN: 75% Chance Earth Tops 1.5°C by 2030

Is this a climate crisis or just natural weather variation?

Published 7 days ago

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Above: A tourist uses a fan to shield from the sun at the Sagrada Familia cathedral during high temperatures in Barcelona, Spain, on May 27. Image credit: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin

Climate change is making heat waves hotter, longer and more deadly — and this summer proves it. The fossil fuel industry spent decades lying about the science while locking society into heat-trapping emissions, and now 136 million Americans are sweltering under dangerous heat indexes topping 115 degrees. Extreme heat is already the top weather-related killer in the U.S., and without serious action, this brutal summer could be the coolest one left.

Jeff Berardelli on X The Equation

Record high temperatures across the U.S. are nothing new. —In the U.S., 36 of 50 state heat records were set more than five decades ago, and 23 were set in the 1930s when CO2 emissions were a fraction of today's levels. Global average temperature records spanning 150 years represent a tiny sliver of Earth's 4.5-billion-year history, making alarm over "unprecedented" heat deeply misleading. Natural factors dominate Earth's climate, and adaptation is the only rational response.

Chris Martz on X The Heartland Institute

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 30% chance of a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.