UN: 75% Chance Earth Tops 1.5°C by 2030

UN: 75% Chance Earth Tops 1.5C5°C by 2030

Published 7 days ago

story

Above: **Watermarked Getty Image. Kindly Replace** A tourist uses a fan to shield from the sun at the Sagrada Familia cathedral during high temperatures in Barcelona, Spain, on May 27, 2026. Image credit: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin

Climate change is making heat waves hotter, longer and more deadly — and this summer proves it. The fossil fuel industry spent decades lying about the science while locking society into heat-trapping emissions, and now 136 million Americans are sweltering under dangerous heat indexes topping 115 degrees. Extreme heat is already the top weather-related killer in the U.S., and without serious action, this brutal summer could be the coolest one left.

Jeff Berardelli on X The Equation

Record high temperatures across the U.S. are nothing new — 36 of 50 state heat records were set more than five decades ago, and 23 were set in the 1930s when CO2 emissions were a fraction of today's levels. Global average temperature records spanning 150 years represent a tiny sliver of Earth's 4.5-billion-year history, making alarm over "unprecedented" heat deeply misleading. Natural factors dominate Earth's climate, and adaptation is the only rational response.

Chris Martz on X The Heartland Institute

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 30% chance of a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.