The Hill

Paxton defeats Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate runoff

Ken Paxton defeats GOP Sen. John Cornyn in Texas primary runoff

The Texas Tribune

Ken Paxton defeats John Cornyn in Texas U.S. Senate GOP runoff

Daily Wire

Trump-Backed Paxton Blows Out Cornyn In Texas Senate Showdown

PJ Media

Ken Paxton Wins Texas Senate GOP Runoff

FOX News

MAGA triumph: Trump ally Ken Paxton defeats John Cornyn in bitter Texas GOP primary war

The Washington Examiner

Paxton beats Cornyn in high-profile Texas Senate GOP runoff

tedcruz

FrankLuntz

factpostnews

Cornyn concedes after projected loss in Texas Senate primary

Youtube

- YouTube

The Wall Street Journal

Trump Ken Paxton Texas Senate Endorsement 3F63F4Ca

Newsweek

Texas Senate Race Downgrades to Lean Republican After Paxton Win

Metaculus

Which party will hold a plurality in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?

Donald Trump

Richard Hasen

Marc Elias

Karoline Leavitt

David Becker

Michael S. Kang

Rick Hasen

Brennan Center for Justice

Lisa Kashinsky

Richard H. Pildes

Debra Cleaver

Protect Democracy

Michael Schwarz

James Gardner

"The president does not have direct executive power over elections to ban mail voting."

"The president does not have any legal authority over the administration of mail voting."

"The President plays literally no role in elections, and that's by design of the founders."

“The President has no power constitutionally to dictate to states the manner in which they conduct national elections."

"[Trump] would need the cooperation of Congress [to ban mail-in ballots], which I think he'd be unlikely to get to have any kind of federal interference with how the midterm elections will be run."

"While the attorney general does not have the authority to prevent states from following their own laws for counting ballots, this command sets up a potential conflict between the federal government and the states over the counting of ballots in the days after Election Day."

"[Trump] might soon announce a long-promised executive order on the subject."

“The White House is working on an executive order to strengthen our elections in this country, and to ensure that there cannot be blatant fraud, as we’ve seen in California, with their universal mail-in voting system."

"I’m going to do an executive order ending vote by mail.'”

Will Trump Ban US States From Using Mail-In Ballots by the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Harry Enten

Chuck Schumer

Reuters

James M. Lindsay

Polymarket

The New York Times

Mike Marinella

Nate Cohn

Kirsten Gillibrand

The Times

PredictIt

Election Betting Odds

RacetotheWH

Matthew Yglesias

Matt K. Lewis

"If I had to bet today — and I tend to define bet as “regret later” — I’d put my chips on the Democrats."

"Donald Trump knows, his party knows, that they’re at risk of losing this election in 2026"

"A feasible path for the [Democratic] party to win the Senate is coming into focus."

"There is a 47.4% chance the Republican Party will control the US Senate in 2026."

"There is a 48% the Republican Party will win the US Senate in 2026."

"There is a 52% chance the Republican Party will control the Senate after the 2026 election."

"There is a 53.2% chance the Republicans will win a Senate Majority in 2026."

"Democrats face an uphill battle to capture the U.S. Senate in the November midterm elections."

"Republicans are favored to retain their majority in the Senate. "

"Democrats’ chance of winning a Senate majority in 2026 is nearly zero unless they do something dramatically different."

Will Republicans Maintain Control of the Senate After the November 2026 Midterm Elections?

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican Senate primary runoff on Tuesday night, receiving 62.5% of the vote to Cornyn's 37.5%.

c-span.org

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican Senate primary runoff on Tuesday night, receiving 62.5% of the vote to Cornyn's 37.5%.

Paxton will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the November general election. According to campaign finance records, Talarico has raised more than $40 million, while Paxton reported $2.3 million cash on hand as of May 6.

Paxton will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the November general election. According to campaign finance records, Talarico has raised more than $40 million, while Paxton reported $2.3 million cash on hand as of May 6.

The Paxton-Cornyn race was the most expensive Senate primary on record. Pro-Cornyn forces outspent the pro-Paxton side by nearly nine to one overall and more than three to one during the runoff period, per ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

The Paxton-Cornyn race was the most expensive Senate primary on record. Pro-Cornyn forces outspent the pro-Paxton side by nearly nine to one overall and more than three to one during the runoff period, per ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/trump-backs-paxton-over-cornyn-in-texas-senate-race">President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton</a> one week before the runoff, describing him as "a true MAGA Warrior" while saying Cornyn "was not supportive of me when times were tough." Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee had backed Cornyn.

Truthsocial

President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton one week before the runoff, describing him as "a true MAGA Warrior" while saying Cornyn "was not supportive of me when times were tough." Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee had backed Cornyn.

Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges related to his dealings with donor Nate Paul, but was <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2023/texas-attorney-general-paxton-acquitted">acquitted by the state Senate</a>. He also settled securities fraud charges in 2024, paying nearly $300,000 in restitution.

New Yorker

New York Post

Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges related to his dealings with donor Nate Paul, but was acquitted by the state Senate. He also settled securities fraud charges in 2024, paying nearly $300,000 in restitution.

Cornyn's defeat follows primary <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/cassidy-ousted-letlow-fleming-head-to-runoff">losses by Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/trumpbacked-gallrein-ousts-rep-massie-in-kentucky">Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky</a>, both of whom were ousted after Trump backed their opponents. The Cook Political Report shifted its Texas Senate race rating from "likely" to "lean" Republican after Paxton's win.

Cornyn's defeat follows primary losses by Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, both of whom were ousted after Trump backed their opponents. The Cook Political Report shifted its Texas Senate race rating from "likely" to "lean" Republican after Paxton's win.

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Metaculus #

New Yorker #3426

New York Post #4685

Ken Paxton's primary win proves Donald Trump has an iron grip on the Republican Party — backing Paxton seals the deal. Trump is the GOP's chief strategist, chief advocate and chief voice, and no one will have a bigger impact come November. Texas needs to unite behind Paxton to keep a radical Democrat out of the Senate.

Ken Paxton's primary win proves Donald Trump has an iron grip on the Republican Party — backing Paxton seals the deal. Trump is the GOP's chief strategist, chief advocate and chief voice, and no one will have a bigger impact come November. Texas needs to unite behind Paxton to keep a radical Democrat out of the Senate.

Frank Luntz

Ted Cruz

Ken Paxton was impeached by his own party, paid $300,000 to settle felony fraud charges and is still under investigation for mortgage fraud — this is the GOP's pick. Nominating someone this compromised hands Democrats a real shot at flipping a Texas Senate seat. James Talarico has a clear path to victory against a deeply corrupt politician.

Ken Paxton was impeached by his own party, paid $300,000 to settle felony fraud charges and is still under investigation for mortgage fraud — this is the GOP's pick. Nominating someone this compromised hands Democrats a real shot at flipping a Texas Senate seat. James Talarico has a clear path to victory against a deeply corrupt politician.

James Talarico

Bluesky Social

@jamestalarico.bsky.social on Bluesky

FactPost

Santiago Mayer

@santiagomayer.com on Bluesky

There's a 53% chance that Republicans will hold the most seats in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 53% chance that Republicans will hold the most seats in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

US Midterms: Texas Senate Republican Primary

US Midterms: Texas Senate Democratic Primary

Elías Valverde II/The Dallas Morning News/Getty Images