Quad Ministers Meet in New Delhi, Launch Key Initiatives

Is the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative a game-changing security framework or an empty pledge?

Published MAY 26

Quad Ministers Meet in New Delhi, Launch Key Initiatives

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Above: From left to right, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New Delhi, India, on May 26. Image credit: Imtiyaz Khan/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Spin

The Quad Critical Minerals Initiative is a serious, well-structured push to break dependence on unreliable supply chains by mobilizing up to $20 billion in government and private sector support. By working together across mining, processing, recycling and regulation, the Quad will gain the kind of economic leverage that builds lasting security.

Ambassador Sergio Gor on X

Donald Trump on US State Department

Plans to pledge $20 billion sound bold, but building rare-earth mining and refining capacity is not a quick fix; rather, it's a decades-long project. With U.S. credibility as a coalition leader shot thanks to Donald Trump's antics, and partner nations like Australia with zero appetite for a trade war with Beijing, it seems extremely unlikely to bear any meaningful fruit.

Financial Times Geopolitical Monitor

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that China's share of rare earth production will be at least 50.6% of world production in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.