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Chinas Huawei reveals chip design breakthrough amid U.S. sanctions

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Huawei claims sanctions-busting breakthrough with 1.4nm-class chips by 2031, claims 55% higher transistor density  firm claims new LogicFolding chip architecture can bypass EUV restrictions, introduc

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Metaculus

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Andrew Ng

Eric Schmidt

Chuck Schumer

Brad Smith

Nestor Maslej

Ruth Porat

Ylli Bajraktari

Bruegel

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

Brandon J. Weichert

Clement Delangue

Zhou Hongyi

Joseph Tsai

Huey-Meei Chang

Craig S. Smith

Jeffrey Ding

Ray Perrault

Susana Martinez

Niall Ferguson

Larry Elliot

Marcel Munch

Pavel Durov

John Rush

"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

Bloomberg

Jackson Hinkle

SemiAnalysis

Robert Maire

Phelix Lee

Gina Raimondo

Christophe Fouquet

Mark LaPedus

Wccftech

Zhang Pingan

Zephyr

Qingyuan Lin

"By banning the export of EUV, China will lag 10 to 15 years behind the West [in producing 5nm]."

“We don’t have any evidence that they [Chinese] can manufacture seven-nanometer at scale [let alone 5nm].”

"We will not get 3nm, and we will not get 5nm. It would be very, very good if we could solve 7nm."

“Quite unlikely, at least in the next five years.”

"Perhaps next year Pura/Mate smartphones and Matepad tablets could surprise consumers with a more powerful and efficient [5nm] Kirin chipset."

"If nothing changes with current restrictions, we expect Huawei and SMIC to have a true 5nm based chip in 2025 or 2026 with large scale AI chips not so long after."

"China may be able to produce 5nm chips by the end of [2025]."

“If SMIC is keeping pace, probably about two years [2025].”

"5nm chips have been in production since December 2024."

Will China Produce Any Volume of Functional 5nm Chips by 2026?

Huawei announced at a semiconductor symposium in Shanghai on Monday that its high-end chips will achieve transistor density equivalent to 1.4-nanometer processes by 2031, though the company did not provide independent performance data to support the claim.

Huawei announced at a semiconductor symposium in Shanghai on Monday that its high-end chips will achieve transistor density equivalent to 1.4-nanometer processes by 2031, though the company did not provide independent performance data to support the claim.

The announcement centers on a new design concept called the Tau Scaling Law, which focuses on reducing the time it takes signals and data to move through chips rather than shrinking transistors — the approach underpinning Moore's Law.

The announcement centers on a new design concept called the Tau Scaling Law, which focuses on reducing the time it takes signals and data to move through chips rather than shrinking transistors — the approach underpinning Moore's Law.

Huawei's LogicFolding architecture, set to debut in Kirin smartphone chips this autumn, physically folds and stacks logic circuits into a dual-layer framework, achieving a reported 55% increase in transistor density and a 41% boost in power efficiency.

Huawei's LogicFolding architecture, set to debut in Kirin smartphone chips this autumn, physically folds and stacks logic circuits into a dual-layer framework, achieving a reported 55% increase in transistor density and a 41% boost in power efficiency.

Huawei's chip division has designed and mass-produced 381 chips based on the Tau Scaling Law over the past six years, spanning industries from smartphones to AI computing, with LogicFolding also set to be applied to Ascend AI chips by 2030.

Huawei's chip division has designed and mass-produced 381 chips based on the Tau Scaling Law over the past six years, spanning industries from smartphones to AI computing, with LogicFolding also set to be applied to Ascend AI chips by 2030.

Taiwan's TSMC currently produces chips using 2-nm technology and plans to begin mass production of a 1.4-nm process in 2028. China's most advanced proven chipmaking capability is widely considered to be around 7 nm.

Taiwan's TSMC currently produces chips using 2-nm technology and plans to begin mass production of a 1.4-nm process in 2028. China's most advanced proven chipmaking capability is widely considered to be around 7 nm.

Analysts note that challenges including heat management, power consumption, production costs and the need for new chip-design tools remain significant hurdles. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said earlier this month the company had "largely conceded" China's AI chip market to Huawei.

Analysts note that challenges including heat management, power consumption, production costs and the need for new chip-design tools remain significant hurdles. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said earlier this month the company had "largely conceded" China's AI chip market to Huawei.

Huawei Targets 1.4nm Chip Density by 2031

Huawei Targets 1.4nm Chip Density by 2031

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Huawei Targets 1.4nm Chip Density by 2031

Huawei Targets 1.4nm Chip Density by 2031

The Controversies

Tsai

Ding

Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

Fouquet

Raimondo

Lee

Central

SemiAnalysis

Hinkle

Maire

Zephyr

Go Deeper

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