The US is manufacturing a crisis to justify military aggression against Cuba, using dubious drone allegations and economic strangulation to push a sovereign nation to the brink. Cutting off oil supplies has left Cubans with barely an hour of electricity a day — that's collective punishment, not diplomacy. Any military action against Cuba would trigger a bloodbath with consequences that would destabilize the entire region.
Cuba's collapsing economy and crumbling infrastructure are the direct result of a corrupt regime that has failed its people for decades. The US is right to squeeze the Castro-era government out of power — sanctions on GAESA and the oil cutoff are legitimate tools to force a broken, unfixable system to reform or step aside. Raul Castro's potential indictment for ordering the 1996 shootdown of civilian aircraft is long overdue justice.
There is a 33% chance that the United States will attack Cuba before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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