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Chance of a ‘super’ El Niño grows – and it’s just around the corner

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Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

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World Bank Group

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Extreme weather risks rise as El Nino threat grows

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Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

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Are we really headed for a ‘super’ El Niño? What the science says

El Nio is coming, chances rising it will be historically strong

The Conversation

A ‘super El Niño?’ Why it’s too early to forecast one with certainty, but not too soon to prepare

The Hill

Chance of a ‘super’ El Niño grows — and it’s just around the corner

USA Today

A Super El Nino could bring a summer of

BBC News

Warning of record global temperatures as chance of very strong El Niño grows

Reuters

US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July

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Scientific American

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KTLA

Super El Nino Chance Grows

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"[C]limate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax."

"I believe in climate change caused by human beings. What I'm skeptical about is the glib notion that it means the end of the world as we know it."

"The clock is no longer just ticking, it is banging."

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"[W]e are killing our planet."

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Is Climate Change an Existential Threat?

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"At this point it is virtually certain we will blow through [the 1.5C] target."

'"On our current path... we will reach that 1.5-degree limit sometime in the 2030s."

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"[C]utting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees."

Keeping global warming to 1.5C is "entirely doable" and "simply a matter of political willpower."

Will Global Warming Be Limited to 1.5°C or "Well Below" 2°C?

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center released an updated forecast on May 14 giving El Niño an 82% chance of emerging between May and July 2026, with a 96% chance of the phenomenon persisting through December 2026 to February 2027.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center released an updated forecast on May 14 giving El Niño an 82% chance of emerging between May and July 2026, with a 96% chance of the phenomenon persisting through December 2026 to February 2027.

Forecasters say there is roughly a 35% probability that this year's El Niño will be classified as "very strong," a 25% chance it will be "strong" and about a 20% chance it will be "moderate," with only a small probability it will be weak or fail to form.

Forecasters say there is roughly a 35% probability that this year's El Niño will be classified as "very strong," a 25% chance it will be "strong" and about a 20% chance it will be "moderate," with only a small probability it will be weak or fail to form.

A super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. Only four such events have been recorded since 1950, with the most recent taking place between 2015 and 2016.

A super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. Only four such events have been recorded since 1950, with the most recent taking place between 2015 and 2016.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely." Spring forecasts of El Niño have historically been unreliable, though forecasters report higher-than-normal confidence this year.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely." Spring forecasts of El Niño have historically been unreliable, though forecasters report higher-than-normal confidence this year.

El Niño typically brings warm, dry winter weather to the northern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions to southern states. A strong event also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing tropical storm activity in the central and eastern Pacific.

El Niño typically brings warm, dry winter weather to the northern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions to southern states. A strong event also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing tropical storm activity in the central and eastern Pacific.

Forecasters warn that a strong El Niño could reduce rainfall across Southeast Asia and Australia, potentially lowering palm oil and wheat production. Indonesia's crude palm oil output may drop by up to 2 million metric tons compared to 2025.

Forecasters warn that a strong El Niño could reduce rainfall across Southeast Asia and Australia, potentially lowering palm oil and wheat production. Indonesia's crude palm oil output may drop by up to 2 million metric tons compared to 2025.

El Niño Has 82% Chance of Emerging by Mid-2026

El Niño Has 82% Chance of aEmerging ‘super’by El Niño growsMid-2026

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El Niño Has 82% Chance of Emerging by Mid-2026

El Niño Has 82% Chance of aEmerging ‘super’by El Niño growsMid-2026

The Controversies

Trump

Michaels

Harris

Sunak

Francis

Biden

Macron

Thunberg

Merkel

Attenborough

Guterres

Mann

Whitehouse

Guterres

Skea

Stiell

Gates

Thunberg

Mann

Go Deeper

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