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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve chairman

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Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh As Fed Chair In Most Partisan Vote Ever

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"Our base case is no recession for 2026."

"There is a 24% chance that a recession will begin in the U.S. in 2026."

"We have shaved our 12-month US recession probability from 30% to 25% as economic activity has held up well and our financial conditions index has eased back below pre-war levels."

"We estimate a 30% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, up from 20% before the war."

"Economists placed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 33%, up from 27% in the January survey."

"Looking at the economy, J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a 35% probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026, and sticky inflation will likely remain a prevailing theme."

"We now place the probability of recession at 40%, with risks skewed higher if the conflict intensifies."

"Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years."

“If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid.”

“People are preparing themselves for the fact that we are already in a recession now or that there is a high likelihood we will soon be in one.”

Will the US Economy Enter a Recession in 2026?

The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair on Wednesday in a 54-45 vote, the narrowest confirmation margin ever for a Fed chair. Warsh, 56, succeeds Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ends May 15.

The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair on Wednesday in a 54-45 vote, the narrowest confirmation margin ever for a Fed chair. Warsh, 56, succeeds Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ends May 15.

The vote was nearly entirely along party lines, with Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania the only Democrat to support Warsh. No Fed chair has been confirmed by such a slim margin since Senate approval became a requirement for the role in 1977.

The vote was nearly entirely along party lines, with Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania the only Democrat to support Warsh. No Fed chair has been confirmed by such a slim margin since Senate approval became a requirement for the role in 1977.

Powell plans to remain on the Fed's board of governors after his chairmanship ends, saying the pressure campaign against the central bank left him no choice but to stay. No other Fed chair has returned to the board in nearly 80 years.

Powell plans to remain on the Fed's board of governors after his chairmanship ends, saying the pressure campaign against the central bank left him no choice but to stay. No other Fed chair has returned to the board in nearly 80 years.

A Justice Department criminal probe into Powell's handling of a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters had threatened to delay Warsh's confirmation. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro dropped the case after the Fed's inspector general agreed to review the project.

A Justice Department criminal probe into Powell's handling of a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters had threatened to delay Warsh's confirmation. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro dropped the case after the Fed's inspector general agreed to review the project.

Warsh takes over amid rising inflation, with the annual U.S. consumer price index reaching 3.8 percent in April — a three-year high — driven in part by higher energy prices linked to the Iran war. Investors have largely ruled out a rate cut in 2025, with some traders forecasting a potential rate hike in 2027.

Warsh takes over amid rising inflation, with the annual U.S. consumer price index reaching 3.8 percent in April — a three-year high — driven in part by higher energy prices linked to the Iran war. Investors have largely ruled out a rate cut in 2025, with some traders forecasting a potential rate hike in 2027.

During his confirmation hearing, Warsh pledged to maintain the Fed's monetary independence and said Trump had not asked him to commit to any specific interest rate decision. Trump is also engaged in a legal dispute over his attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a matter now before the Supreme Court.

During his confirmation hearing, Warsh pledged to maintain the Fed's monetary independence and said Trump had not asked him to commit to any specific interest rate decision. Trump is also engaged in a legal dispute over his attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a matter now before the Supreme Court.

Senate Confirms Warsh as Fed Chair in 54-45 Vote

Senate Confirms Warsh as Fed Chair in 54-45 Vote

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Senate Confirms Warsh as Fed Chair in 54-45 Vote

Senate Confirms Warsh as Fed Chair in 54-45 Vote

The Controversies

Turnquist

Metaculus

Hatzius

US

JPMorgan

Young

Analytics

Zandi

Farag

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