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"He's doomed, he will be gone - I thought he'd be gone by now. I was wrong. But I do think he's got just a few months in him."

"There is a 6% chance Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026."

"84% of bets back a 2026 exit for Keir Starmer."

"There is a 62% chance Keir Starmer will be out before Sep 1, 2026."

"There's a 32% chance Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister in 2026."

"These things turn around very, very fast and anyone making predictions in the current atmosphere is a fool."

"There is only a 64% likelihood that he will still be in Downing Street by 31 December 2026."

“I will be sitting in this seat by 2027 and if this long-form interview works, we can try it again in January of next year as well.”

Will Keir Starmer Remain Prime Minister Through to the End of 2026?

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has told Cabinet on Tuesday morning he would not resign, stating that "the Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered."

Steven Swinford

Pippa Crerar

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has told Cabinet on Tuesday morning he would not resign, stating that "the Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered."

More than 80 Labour MPs had called on Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable by Tuesday morning, with at least some Cabinet members, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, calling privately for Starmer to step down.

Guardian

Politics UK

More than 80 Labour MPs had called on Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable by Tuesday morning, with at least some Cabinet members, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, calling privately for Starmer to step down.

On Tuesday morning, communities minister Miatta Fahnbulleh became the first frontbencher to resign, urging Starmer "to do the right thing for the country and the Party and set a timetable for an orderly transition."

On Tuesday morning, communities minister Miatta Fahnbulleh became the first frontbencher to resign, urging Starmer "to do the right thing for the country and the Party and set a timetable for an orderly transition."

Labour's constitution requires 20% of MPs to nominate a single candidate to challenge the party's leader, currently translating to 81 MPs. Labour MP Catherine West has also announced that she collecting names of Labour MPs calling for a new leadership election in September, though this lacks constitutional enforcement.

Labour's constitution requires 20% of MPs to nominate a single candidate to challenge the party's leader, currently translating to 81 MPs. Labour MP Catherine West has also announced that she collecting names of Labour MPs calling for a new leadership election in September, though this lacks constitutional enforcement.

Following Cabinet, multiple ministers spoke to reporters outside of 10 Downing Street supporting the prime minister, including Business Secretary Peter Kyle, Science &amp; Technology Secretary Liz Kendall, Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden as well as Housing, Communities and Local Government Secretary Steve Reed, confirming that no minister had triggered a contest.

Following Cabinet, multiple ministers spoke to reporters outside of 10 Downing Street supporting the prime minister, including Business Secretary Peter Kyle, Science & Technology Secretary Liz Kendall, Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden as well as Housing, Communities and Local Government Secretary Steve Reed, confirming that no minister had triggered a contest.

Last Thursday, Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats in England while the party dropped to 17 out of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament and 9 of 96 seats in Wales. Nationally, Labour sits third (17%) behind the Conservatives (18%) and Reform (25%) in Politico's poll of polls, while YouGov places government approval at -49%.

Last Thursday, Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats in England while the party dropped to 17 out of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament and 9 of 96 seats in Wales. Nationally, Labour sits third (17%) behind the Conservatives (18%) and Reform (25%) in Politico's poll of polls, while YouGov places government approval at -49%.

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer told a Cabinet meeting he would not resign, stating that "the Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered" following the party's poor local election results.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer told a Cabinet meeting he would not resign, stating that "the Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered" following the party's poor local election results.

More than 80 Labour MPs had called on Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable by Tuesday morning, with at least 10 more joining those calls in the 24 hours following the local election results.

More than 80 Labour MPs had called on Starmer to resign or set a departure timetable by Tuesday morning, with at least 10 more joining those calls in the 24 hours following the local election results.

Communities minister Miatta Fahnbulleh became the first frontbencher to resign, urging Starmer "to do the right thing for the country and the Party and set a timetable for an orderly transition."

Communities minister Miatta Fahnbulleh became the first frontbencher to resign, urging Starmer "to do the right thing for the country and the Party and set a timetable for an orderly transition."

Cabinet sources indicated that six senior ministers — Shabana Mahmood, John Healey, Ed Miliband, Lisa Nandy, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting — agreed Starmer should set out a resignation timetable.

Cabinet sources indicated that six senior ministers — Shabana Mahmood, John Healey, Ed Miliband, Lisa Nandy, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting — agreed Starmer should set out a resignation timetable.

Labour lost control of more than 30 councils and around 1,500 councillors in England. In Wales, First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her Senedd seat, while Scottish Labour's vote share fell compared to the 2021 election.

Labour lost control of more than 30 councils and around 1,500 councillors in England. In Wales, First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her Senedd seat, while Scottish Labour's vote share fell compared to the 2021 election.

Cabinet minister Steve Reed emerged from the Downing Street meeting to declare his support for Starmer, telling Sky News: "The prime minister has my full support" and that colleagues intended "to get on with our jobs."

Cabinet minister Steve Reed emerged from the Downing Street meeting to declare his support for Starmer, telling Sky News: "The prime minister has my full support" and that colleagues intended "to get on with our jobs."

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