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"He's doomed, he will be gone - I thought he'd be gone by now. I was wrong. But I do think he's got just a few months in him."

"There is a 6% chance Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026."

"84% of bets back a 2026 exit for Keir Starmer."

"There is a 62% chance Keir Starmer will be out before Sep 1, 2026."

"There's a 32% chance Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister in 2026."

"43% think that Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of the year."

"These things turn around very, very fast and anyone making predictions in the current atmosphere is a fool."

"As much as MPs might want him to go, he is unlikely to acquiesce."

"There is only a 64% likelihood that he will still be in Downing Street by 31 December 2026."

“I will be sitting in this seat by 2027 and if this long-form interview works, we can try it again in January of next year as well.”

Will Keir Starmer Remain Prime Minister Through to the End of 2026?

Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered a speech on Monday in which he refused to resign amid calls from more than 40 Labour MPs to step down following the party's local election losses last week.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered a speech on Monday in which he refused to resign amid calls from more than 40 Labour MPs to step down following the party's local election losses last week.

Last Thursday, Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats in England. Meawnhile, the party dropped to 17 out 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament as well as 9 out of 96 seats in Wales — marking the first time since devolution that the party has not led government in the Senedd.

Last Thursday, Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats in England. Meawnhile, the party dropped to 17 out 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament as well as 9 out of 96 seats in Wales — marking the first time since devolution that the party has not led government in the Senedd.

Starmer stated that that though he acknowledged he had "doubters," including in his own party, he was still committed to "delivering the change that we promised for a stronger and fairer Britain" through delivering a "bigger response than we anticipated in 2024."

Starmer stated that that though he acknowledged he had "doubters," including in his own party, he was still committed to "delivering the change that we promised for a stronger and fairer Britain" through delivering a "bigger response than we anticipated in 2024."

Starmer announced plans for British Steel to be nationalised and said he would pursue a "big leap forward" in U.K.-EU relations at an upcoming summit, declining to rule out rejoining the EU single market or customs union at the next general election.

Starmer announced plans for British Steel to be nationalised and said he would pursue a "big leap forward" in U.K.-EU relations at an upcoming summit, declining to rule out rejoining the EU single market or customs union at the next general election.

Starmer also said that any decision concerning Andy Burnham rejoining Parliament was a decision for the party's National Executive Committee. Earlier this year, the N.E.C. blocked Burnham from running as a parliamentary candidate, a move that former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner described on the weekend as a mistake.

Angela Rayner

Starmer also said that any decision concerning Andy Burnham rejoining Parliament was a decision for the party's National Executive Committee. Earlier this year, the N.E.C. blocked Burnham from running as a parliamentary candidate, a move that former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner described on the weekend as a mistake.

Labour backbencher Catherine West, who had said she would challenge the prime minister on Monday if no Cabinet member did so, said the speech was "too little too late" and announcing that she was collecting signatures from Labour MPs to call on him to set a timetable for a new leadership election in September.

Labour backbencher Catherine West, who had said she would challenge the prime minister on Monday if no Cabinet member did so, said the speech was "too little too late" and announcing that she was collecting signatures from Labour MPs to call on him to set a timetable for a new leadership election in September.

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered a speech on May 11 in which he refused to resign despite calls from more than 40 Labour MPs to step down following the party's local election losses, including losing over 1,500 councillors across England and coming third in Wales.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered a speech on May 11 in which he refused to resign despite calls from more than 40 Labour MPs to step down following the party's local election losses, including losing over 1,500 councillors across England and coming third in Wales.

Labour backbencher Catherine West said Starmer's speech was "too little too late" and announced she was collecting signatures from Labour MPs to call on him to set a timetable for a new leadership election in September.

Labour backbencher Catherine West said Starmer's speech was "too little too late" and announced she was collecting signatures from Labour MPs to call on him to set a timetable for a new leadership election in September.

During the speech, Starmer announced that British Steel would be nationalised through legislation to be introduced in the King's Speech on Wednesday, marking the first time the company could return to public ownership since it was sold in 1988.

During the speech, Starmer announced that British Steel would be nationalised through legislation to be introduced in the King's Speech on Wednesday, marking the first time the company could return to public ownership since it was sold in 1988.

Starmer said he would pursue a "big leap forward" in UK-EU relations at an upcoming summit, including an ambitious youth mobility scheme, and declined to rule out rejoining the EU single market or customs union at the next general election.

Starmer said he would pursue a "big leap forward" in UK-EU relations at an upcoming summit, including an ambitious youth mobility scheme, and declined to rule out rejoining the EU single market or customs union at the next general election.

Reform UK made significant gains at the local elections, taking councils including Barnsley, Wakefield, Sunderland and Gateshead, largely from Labour, while the Greens gained previously safe London councils such as Lambeth and Hackney.

Reform UK made significant gains at the local elections, taking councils including Barnsley, Wakefield, Sunderland and Gateshead, largely from Labour, while the Greens gained previously safe London councils such as Lambeth and Hackney.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting was identified by Labour MPs as a potential leadership challenger, though allies denied he would move against Starmer unless another candidate launched a race first. Andy Burnham was also reported to be seeking a route back to parliament.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting was identified by Labour MPs as a potential leadership challenger, though allies denied he would move against Starmer unless another candidate launched a race first. Andy Burnham was also reported to be seeking a route back to parliament.

Starmer Leadership Crisis

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