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"He's doomed, he will be gone - I thought he'd be gone by now. I was wrong. But I do think he's got just a few months in him."

"There is a 6% chance Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026."

"84% of bets back a 2026 exit for Keir Starmer."

"There is a 62% chance Keir Starmer will be out before Sep 1, 2026."

"There's a 32% chance Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister in 2026."

"43% think that Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of the year."

"These things turn around very, very fast and anyone making predictions in the current atmosphere is a fool."

"As much as MPs might want him to go, he is unlikely to acquiesce."

"There is only a 64% likelihood that he will still be in Downing Street by 31 December 2026."

“I will be sitting in this seat by 2027 and if this long-form interview works, we can try it again in January of next year as well.”

Will Keir Starmer Remain Prime Minister Through to the End of 2026?

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced plans to nationalize British Steel in a speech on May 11, with legislation to be introduced in the King's Speech on Wednesday. The move would mark the first time British Steel has been in government hands since it was sold off in 1988.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced plans to nationalize British Steel in a speech on May 11, with legislation to be introduced in the King's Speech on Wednesday. The move would mark the first time British Steel has been in government hands since it was sold off in 1988.

The proposed legislation would allow nationalization subject to a public interest test covering factors such as national security, critical infrastructure and economic support. The government intervened at British Steel in April 2025 under the Steel Industry (Special Measures) Act to prevent closure of the Scunthorpe blast furnaces.

The proposed legislation would allow nationalization subject to a public interest test covering factors such as national security, critical infrastructure and economic support. The government intervened at British Steel in April 2025 under the Steel Industry (Special Measures) Act to prevent closure of the Scunthorpe blast furnaces.

Starmer's speech came after Labour lost more than 1,500 councillors in English local elections and lost control of Wales, with Reform UK making significant gains in traditional Labour areas including Barnsley, Sunderland and Gateshead. More than 40 Labour MPs called for his resignation following the results.

Starmer's speech came after Labour lost more than 1,500 councillors in English local elections and lost control of Wales, with Reform UK making significant gains in traditional Labour areas including Barnsley, Sunderland and Gateshead. More than 40 Labour MPs called for his resignation following the results.

Starmer declined to rule out rejoining the EU single market or customs union at the next general election, despite Labour's 2024 manifesto pledging "no return to the single market, the customs union or freedom of movement." He said the upcoming UK-EU summit would represent "a big leap forward" in relations with the bloc.

Starmer declined to rule out rejoining the EU single market or customs union at the next general election, despite Labour's 2024 manifesto pledging "no return to the single market, the customs union or freedom of movement." He said the upcoming UK-EU summit would represent "a big leap forward" in relations with the bloc.

Starmer also announced a youth mobility scheme as part of a broader EU reset, saying young people should be able to "live, work and study in Europe." He said the June EU summit would set "a new direction for Britain" on trade, defence and security.

Starmer also announced a youth mobility scheme as part of a broader EU reset, saying young people should be able to "live, work and study in Europe." He said the June EU summit would set "a new direction for Britain" on trade, defence and security.

Following the speech, Labour backbencher Catherine West said it was "too little too late" and began collecting signatures from Labour MPs to call on Starmer to set a timetable for a new leadership election in September. A leadership challenge would require 81 Labour MPs to publicly back the call.

Following the speech, Labour backbencher Catherine West said it was "too little too late" and began collecting signatures from Labour MPs to call on Starmer to set a timetable for a new leadership election in September. A leadership challenge would require 81 Labour MPs to publicly back the call.

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