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Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

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"This could be the year when a national voter ID law is finally enacted."

A ballot measure on voter ID in California "will pass overwhelmingly."

"You can definitely expect it [national voter ID]."

"We will implement measures to secure our Elections, including Voter ID."

"I just want voter ID to start."

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Daniel Coble

“We will not hand over Coloradans’ sensitive voting information to Donald Trump. He does not have a legal right to the information.”

“The U.S. DOJ is simply asking the commission to do something that the commission is explicitly forbidden by Wisconsin law to do.”

“Washington is not going to turn over this personal information. If they do release the lawsuit, we are very confident we will be successful in court.”

"I'm not going to turn over the list to the Department of Justice."

“It’s hard for me to imagine any Republican state with faith in its own list maintenance capacity agreeing to outsource that decision to the DOJ.”

“The federal government has no role in list maintenance.”

“They’re also not likely, but these are things people need to be on guard for.”

Rick Hasen

“We are in the process of reviewing the document with our attorneys and carefully considering our options.”

"They’re entitled to the vast majority of information — people’s names, addresses, birthdays"

“At this Department of Justice, we will not permit states to jeopardize the integrity and effectiveness of elections by refusing to abide by our federal elections laws. If states will not fulfill their duty to protect the integrity of the ballot, we will.”

“Accurate voter rolls are the cornerstone of fair and free elections, and too many states have fallen into a pattern of noncompliance with basic voter roll maintenance.”

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"If I had to bet today — and I tend to define bet as “regret later” — I’d put my chips on the Democrats."

"Donald Trump knows, his party knows, that they’re at risk of losing this election in 2026"

"A feasible path for the [Democratic] party to win the Senate is coming into focus."

"There is a 47.4% chance the Republican Party will control the US Senate in 2026."

"There is a 48% the Republican Party will win the US Senate in 2026."

"There is a 52% chance the Republican Party will control the Senate after the 2026 election."

"There is a 53.2% chance the Republicans will win a Senate Majority in 2026."

"Democrats face an uphill battle to capture the U.S. Senate in the November midterm elections."

"Republicans are favored to retain their majority in the Senate. "

"Democrats’ chance of winning a Senate majority in 2026 is nearly zero unless they do something dramatically different."

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The Virginia Supreme Court ruled 4-3 on Friday to strike down a voter-approved redistricting referendum, finding that Democratic lawmakers violated procedural requirements when placing the constitutional amendment on the ballot.

The Virginia Supreme Court ruled 4-3 on Friday to strike down a voter-approved redistricting referendum, finding that Democratic lawmakers violated procedural requirements when placing the constitutional amendment on the ballot.

The court's majority held that the legislature's initial vote on the amendment was invalid because early voting had already begun in November 2025, with more than 1.3 million ballots cast by that point.

The court's majority held that the legislature's initial vote on the amendment was invalid because early voting had already begun in November 2025, with more than 1.3 million ballots cast by that point.

The ruling nullifies the redrawn congressional map that Democrats said could have flipped up to four Republican-held U.S. House seats, reverting Virginia to its current 6-5 Democratic-Republican delegation split.

The ruling nullifies the redrawn congressional map that Democrats said could have flipped up to four Republican-held U.S. House seats, reverting Virginia to its current 6-5 Democratic-Republican delegation split.

Chief Justice Cleo Powell dissented, arguing the majority broadened the definition of "election" beyond its established meaning and that the legislature had satisfied constitutional requirements under existing Virginia statutes.

Chief Justice Cleo Powell dissented, arguing the majority broadened the definition of "election" beyond its established meaning and that the legislature had satisfied constitutional requirements under existing Virginia statutes.

Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones said his office was "evaluating every legal pathway forward" after the ruling, with a spokeswoman confirming the office was considering options for a federal court challenge.

Jay Jones

Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones said his office was "evaluating every legal pathway forward" after the ruling, with a spokeswoman confirming the office was considering options for a federal court challenge.

The Virginia ruling is part of a broader national redistricting battle, with Republicans gaining new maps in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee and Ohio, while a recent U.S. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34484/us-congress-control-after-2026-midterms/">Supreme Court decision weakening the Voting Rights Act</a> has prompted additional Republican-led states to consider redrawing their maps.

The Virginia ruling is part of a broader national redistricting battle, with Republicans gaining new maps in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee and Ohio, while a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision weakening the Voting Rights Act has prompted additional Republican-led states to consider redrawing their maps.

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The court's majority held that the legislature's initial vote on the amendment was invalid because early voting had already begun in the 2025 general election, with more than 1.3 million ballots cast by that point.

The court's majority held that the legislature's initial vote on the amendment was invalid because early voting had already begun in the 2025 general election, with more than 1.3 million ballots cast by that point.

The Virginia ruling is part of a broader national redistricting battle, with Republicans gaining new maps in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee and Ohio, while a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision weakening the Voting Rights Act has prompted additional Republican-led states to consider redrawing their maps.

Virginia Democrats blew over $80 million trying to ram through an unconstitutional mid-decade gerrymander, and the state Supreme Court rightfully shut it down. The amendment was passed after more than 1.3 million Virginians had already cast early ballots, denying voters a fair chance to understand what they were approving. The 2021 court-approved maps stand, and this naked power grab failed on its own merits.

Virginia Democrats blew over $80 million trying to ram through an unconstitutional mid-decade gerrymander, and the state Supreme Court rightfully shut it down. The amendment was passed after more than 1.3 million Virginians had already cast early ballots, denying voters a fair chance to understand what they were approving. The 2021 court-approved maps stand, and this naked power grab failed on its own merits.

Greg Price

A 4-3 Republican-majority court just overruled millions of Virginia voters who approved a redistricting map at the ballot box, handing the GOP a structural advantage heading into the midterms. Meanwhile, Republican-controlled states have freely redrawn maps at Trump's request, adding up to 12 potential GOP congressional seats nationwide. Striking down a voter-ratified amendment on procedural technicalities while partisan gerrymanders flourish elsewhere is a blatant double standard.

A 4-3 Republican-majority court just overruled millions of Virginia voters who approved a redistricting map at the ballot box, handing the GOP a structural advantage heading into the midterms. Meanwhile, Republican-controlled states have freely redrawn maps at Trump's request, adding up to 12 potential GOP congressional seats nationwide. Striking down a voter-ratified amendment on procedural technicalities while partisan gerrymanders flourish elsewhere is a blatant double standard.

US Politics: Gerrymandering

Virginia Court Strikes Down Voter-Approved Redistricting Map

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Four Republican judges just overruled millions of Virginia voters who approved the map at the ballot box, handing the GOP a structural advantage heading into the midterms. Meanwhile, Republican-controlled states have freely redrawn maps at Trump's request, adding up to 12 potential GOP congressional seats nationwide. Striking down a voter-ratified amendment on procedural technicalities while partisan gerrymanders flourish elsewhere is a blatant double standard.

Four Republican judges just overruled millions of Virginia voters who approved the map at the ballot box, handing the GOP a structural advantage heading into the midterms. Meanwhile, Republican-controlled states have freely redrawn maps at Trump's request, adding up to 12 potential GOP congressional seats nationwide. Striking down a voter-ratified amendment on procedural technicalities while partisan gerrymanders flourish elsewhere is a blatant double standard.

There's a 9.9% chance that Republicans will control both the Senate and House following the 2026 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 9.9% chance that Republicans will control both the Senate and House following the 2026 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Virginia Court Strikes Down Voter-Approved Redistricting Map

Virginia Court Strikes Down Voter-Approved Redistricting Map

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Virginia Court Strikes Down Voter-Approved Redistricting Map

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