The hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius is serious but well-contained — the WHO assesses global risk as low, and top experts say spread beyond the outbreak is essentially zero. The Andes virus moves slowly and rarely transmits between people, giving authorities a clear window to isolate cases and prevent wider contagion. Cruise ship protocols for respiratory outbreaks are already well-established, and this situation is nothing like COVID-19.
Three people are dead from a virus spread by rodent droppings, and 150 passengers are stranded at sea with nowhere to go — that's the cruise experience nobody puts in the brochure. Norovirus, COVID-19, hantavirus: cramming hundreds of people onto a floating vessel is basically a petri dish with a buffet. Land-based vacations exist, and none of them end with passengers confined to their cabins awaiting medical evacuation.
There is a 5% chance there will be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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