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"It will then likely continue holding rates steady for the rest of 2026, before hiking 25 basis points (bp) in the third quarter of 2027."

"With the Iran conflict unresolved, oil prices remaining high, and persistent inflationary pressures, the conditions required for the Fed to cut rates have yet to emerge."

"Outside economists and business leaders broadly agree that while easing geopolitical tensions could pave the way for rate cuts in 2026, policymakers risk moving too quickly if inflation tied to energy prices remains elevated."

"Traders in the futures market shifted the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52% on Friday morning."

“Despite higher inflation forecasts the FOMC retains an easing bias, with a narrow majority on the committee expecting cuts to resume this year.”

"There is a 36.9% chance that there will be zero interest rate cuts in 2026."

"In the new [Bloomberg] survey, conducted March 6-11, just after the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, respondents said they expect [rate cut] moves in June and October."

"There was no clear consensus where rates would ​end the year, but 71 [of 103] economists still expected at least one cut."

"We [BofA]  still expect cuts this year given the Fed's bias to look through supply-driven inflation, little signs of wage pressures, and political pressure."

"We continue to ​think signs of a weakening labor market ​will ⁠result in [rate] cuts later in the year. But the timing of upcoming data suggests a later start ⁠to ​rate cuts than we had ​previously been expecting."

"I want to see a little bit of recovery there. But, of course, I've written three cuts in for before the end of 2026 to hopefully support the labor market."

Will the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates in 2026?

The U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) announced Friday that it has dropped its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro saying that she had directed her office to close the probe into cost overruns at the Fed's multibillion-dollar Washington headquarters renovation.

The U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) announced Friday that it has dropped its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro saying that she had directed her office to close the probe into cost overruns at the Fed's multibillion-dollar Washington headquarters renovation.

Pirro said that the Fed's inspector general, Michael Horowitz, would take over scrutiny of the building cost overruns, which she described as "in the billions of dollars" borne by taxpayers. She added she would "not hesitate" to restart a criminal probe "should the facts warrant doing so."

Jeanine Pirro

Pirro said that the Fed's inspector general, Michael Horowitz, would take over scrutiny of the building cost overruns, which she described as "in the billions of dollars" borne by taxpayers. She added she would "not hesitate" to restart a criminal probe "should the facts warrant doing so."

The renovation project, covering two historic Fed buildings that had not been comprehensively updated since the 1930s, was initially estimated at $1.9 billion but rose to around $2.5 billion. Cost increases were attributed to several factors, including asbestos abatement and rising material costs.

The renovation project, covering two historic Fed buildings that had not been comprehensively updated since the 1930s, was initially estimated at $1.9 billion but rose to around $2.5 billion. Cost increases were attributed to several factors, including asbestos abatement and rising material costs.

A federal judge had already blocked the DOJ's subpoenas to the Fed, finding "essentially zero evidence" of criminal wrongdoing by Powell. A prosecutor handling the case had also conceded at a closed-door hearing that the government had not found evidence of a crime.

A federal judge had already blocked the DOJ's subpoenas to the Fed, finding "essentially zero evidence" of criminal wrongdoing by Powell. A prosecutor handling the case had also conceded at a closed-door hearing that the government had not found evidence of a crime.

Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, had blocked Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Powell's successor, saying that he would not advance the nomination while the DOJ probe remained open.

Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, had blocked Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Powell's successor, saying that he would not advance the nomination while the DOJ probe remained open.

The probe's closure clears a key obstacle to Warsh's Senate confirmation, with the White House stating that it remained "confident" the Senate would "swiftly confirm" Warsh as the next Fed chair. Powell's term as chair ends May 15, and he has said he will serve as acting chair if no successor is confirmed by then.

The probe's closure clears a key obstacle to Warsh's Senate confirmation, with the White House stating that it remained "confident" the Senate would "swiftly confirm" Warsh as the next Fed chair. Powell's term as chair ends May 15, and he has said he will serve as acting chair if no successor is confirmed by then.

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The DOJ dropped its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, with U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro announcing she had directed her office to close the probe into cost overruns at the Fed's multibillion-dollar Washington headquarters renovation.

The DOJ dropped its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, with U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro announcing she had directed her office to close the probe into cost overruns at the Fed's multibillion-dollar Washington headquarters renovation.

Pirro said the Fed's inspector general, Michael Horowitz, would take over scrutiny of the building cost overruns, which she described as "in the billions of dollars" borne by taxpayers. She added she would "not hesitate" to restart a criminal probe "should the facts warrant doing so."

Pirro said the Fed's inspector general, Michael Horowitz, would take over scrutiny of the building cost overruns, which she described as "in the billions of dollars" borne by taxpayers. She added she would "not hesitate" to restart a criminal probe "should the facts warrant doing so."

The renovation project, covering two historic Fed buildings that had not been comprehensively updated since the 1930s, was initially estimated at $1.9 billion but rose to around $2.5 billion, with cost increases attributed to asbestos abatement, a higher-than-expected water table and rising material costs.

The renovation project, covering two historic Fed buildings that had not been comprehensively updated since the 1930s, was initially estimated at $1.9 billion but rose to around $2.5 billion, with cost increases attributed to asbestos abatement, a higher-than-expected water table and rising material costs.

Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, had blocked Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Powell's successor, saying he would not advance the nomination while the DOJ probe remained open. Tillis told Warsh at his confirmation hearing that he had "extraordinary credentials" but that the investigation had to end first.

Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, had blocked Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Powell's successor, saying he would not advance the nomination while the DOJ probe remained open. Tillis told Warsh at his confirmation hearing that he had "extraordinary credentials" but that the investigation had to end first.

The closure of the probe clears a key obstacle to Warsh's Senate confirmation, with the White House stating it remained "confident" the Senate would "swiftly confirm" Warsh as the next Fed chair. Powell's term as chair ends May 15, and he has said he would serve as acting chair if no successor is confirmed by then.

The closure of the probe clears a key obstacle to Warsh's Senate confirmation, with the White House stating it remained "confident" the Senate would "swiftly confirm" Warsh as the next Fed chair. Powell's term as chair ends May 15, and he has said he would serve as acting chair if no successor is confirmed by then.

The DOJ dropping its probe into Powell clears the path for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair. The Senate Banking Committee is still pushing for real accountability on the Fed's cost overruns, and the Inspector General's review will deliver the transparency taxpayers deserve. The Federal Reserve needs to stay focused on price stability, not wasteful mismanagement.

The DOJ dropping its probe into Powell clears the path for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair. The Senate Banking Committee is still pushing for real accountability on the Fed's cost overruns, and the Inspector General's review will deliver the transparency taxpayers deserve. The Federal Reserve needs to stay focused on price stability, not wasteful mismanagement.

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The DOJ's criminal probe into Powell was a politically motivated pressure campaign designed to force interest rate cuts, and it collapsed because it had no legal merit — a federal judge quashed the subpoenas after prosecutors produced essentially zero evidence. Dropping the case only after it threatened Warsh's confirmation proves it was never about justice. Weaponizing federal law enforcement against an independent Fed chair is a direct threat to economic stability.

The DOJ's criminal probe into Powell was a politically motivated pressure campaign designed to force interest rate cuts, and it collapsed because it had no legal merit — a federal judge quashed the subpoenas after prosecutors produced essentially zero evidence. Dropping the case only after it threatened Warsh's confirmation proves it was never about justice. Weaponizing federal law enforcement against an independent Fed chair is a direct threat to economic stability.

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DOJ Halts Criminal Probe Into Fed Chair Powell

DOJ Halts Criminal Probe Into Fed Chair Powell

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This clears the path for Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair, a smart move by the Trump administration. The Senate Banking Committee is still pushing for real accountability and Pirro says she will revisit the case depending on the inspector general's findings. Taxpayers will get the transparency they deserve, while the country gets a Fed chair that will keep America thriving.

This clears the path for Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair, a smart move by the Trump administration. The Senate Banking Committee is still pushing for real accountability and Pirro says she will revisit the case depending on the inspector general's findings. Taxpayers will get the transparency they deserve, while the country gets a Fed chair that will keep America thriving.

The probe of Powell was a politically motivated pressure campaign designed to force interest rate cuts, and it collapsed because it had no legal merit. Dropping the case only after it threatened Warsh's confirmation proves it was never about justice. Weaponizing federal law enforcement against an independent Fed chair is a direct threat to economic stability.

The probe of Powell was a politically motivated pressure campaign designed to force interest rate cuts, and it collapsed because it had no legal merit. Dropping the case only after it threatened Warsh's confirmation proves it was never about justice. Weaponizing federal law enforcement against an independent Fed chair is a direct threat to economic stability.

There's a 20% chance that Powell will cease to be a governor of the Federal Reserve Board before his term ends, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 20% chance that Powell will cease to be a governor of the Federal Reserve Board before his term ends, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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