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The U.S. frames the talks as a push for peace, but its approach helped enable the escalation it now claims to resolve — backing Israel even as strikes in Lebanon killed hundreds of civilians and continued amid ceasefire dynamics. Washington's blind alignment with Israel has made conflicts easier to start and harder to contain, embedding the instability U.S. diplomacy now claims to fix and risking a cycle of repeated escalation that undercuts lasting peace.
There is a 35% chance that Lebanon will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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