Humanoid robots are reshaping civilization at a pace that makes past tech revolutions look slow. China alone shipped 90% of the roughly 13,000 humanoid robots globally last year, and its domestic supply chain means mass deployment is already here. Once robots scale like smartphones, labor scarcity disappears and an era of genuine material abundance becomes inevitable.
Running a half-marathon is impressive, but humanoid robots still can't reliably fold a shirt or open a jar. The manipulation problem remains largely unsolved, and there's no training dataset that captures the tactile feedback human hands use constantly. Until robots can actually perform complex physical tasks, the hype around them is getting way ahead of reality.
There is a 50% chance that, by August 2053, a humanoid robot will be created that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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