Irish Examiner

Extreme winters and summer droughts as Atlantic current system collapse more likely

jrockstrom

ChrisMartzWX

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Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought

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Atlantic current shows steady decline, with scientists warning collapse could amplify global warming and disrupt climate systems

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The Gulf Stream is on the verge of COLLAPSING: Scientists predict a 50% weakening by the end of this century – with devastating consequences

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Collapse of key ocean current may release billions of tonnes of carbon

A vital system of Atlantic Ocean currents is weakening and closer to collapse than thought, new studies find

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Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit

Independent

Vital Atlantic current likely to collapse with catastrophic consequences, scientists warn

The Irish Times

Scientists sound alarm as Atlantic current system much more likely to collapse than thought

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Key Atlantic Current System Collapse Could Trigger Huge Carbon Dioxide Release, Increasing Global Warming By 0.2 C

Metaculus

Amoc Collapse Date

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"[C]limate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax."

"I believe in climate change caused by human beings. What I'm skeptical about is the glib notion that it means the end of the world as we know it."

"The clock is no longer just ticking, it is banging."

"There is no long-term prosperity without action on climate change."

"The time for seeking global solutions [to climate change] is running out."

"The climate crisis is the existential threat. That's not hyperbole; it's a fact."

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"Humanity is on thin ice — and that ice is melting fast."

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Is Climate Change an Existential Threat?

New research published in the journal Science Advances found that climate models predicting the steepest slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are the most accurate, estimating a 42% to 58% deceleration by 2100 — a level scientists say would almost certainly lead to collapse.

New research published in the journal Science Advances found that climate models predicting the steepest slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are the most accurate, estimating a 42% to 58% deceleration by 2100 — a level scientists say would almost certainly lead to collapse.

The AMOC has already reached its weakest level in 1,600 years, and scientists first identified warning signs of a potential tipping point in 2021. The system has collapsed in Earth's past, with the last such event occurring roughly 12,000 years ago.

The AMOC has already reached its weakest level in 1,600 years, and scientists first identified warning signs of a potential tipping point in 2021. The system has collapsed in Earth's past, with the last such event occurring roughly 12,000 years ago.

A collapse of the AMOC would potentially shift tropical rainfall belts relied upon by millions for agriculture, bring extreme cold winters and summer droughts to western Europe, and raise sea levels around the Atlantic by 50 to 100 centimeters (19.7 to 39.4 inches).

A collapse of the AMOC would potentially shift tropical rainfall belts relied upon by millions for agriculture, bring extreme cold winters and summer droughts to western Europe, and raise sea levels around the Atlantic by 50 to 100 centimeters (19.7 to 39.4 inches).

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said the probability of an AMOC shutdown has risen from an earlier estimate of around 5% to more than 50%, warning the tipping point could be reached "in the middle of this century."

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said the probability of an AMOC shutdown has risen from an earlier estimate of around 5% to more than 50%, warning the tipping point could be reached "in the middle of this century."

Researchers used a statistical method called ridge regression — rarely applied in climate science — to compare real-world ocean observations with models, finding that salinity patterns in the South Atlantic were key to identifying the most reliable projections.

Researchers used a statistical method called ridge regression — rarely applied in climate science — to compare real-world ocean observations with models, finding that salinity patterns in the South Atlantic were key to identifying the most reliable projections.

Scientists warn that current projections may still underestimate the AMOC's decline, as most climate models do not account for <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2022/study-melting-of-greenland-ice-sheet-set-to-raise-sea-levels-by-nearly-a-foot">meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet.</a> New modeling also suggests an AMOC collapse could release up to 640 billion tons of CO2 from the Southern Ocean, raising global temperatures by an additional 0.2°C.

Scientists warn that current projections may still underestimate the AMOC's decline, as most climate models do not account for meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet. New modeling also suggests an AMOC collapse could release up to 640 billion tons of CO2 from the Southern Ocean, raising global temperatures by an additional 0.2°C.

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A collapse of the AMOC would shift tropical rainfall belts relied upon by millions for agriculture, bring extreme cold winters and summer droughts to western Europe, and raise sea levels around the Atlantic by 50 to 100 centimeters.

A collapse of the AMOC would shift tropical rainfall belts relied upon by millions for agriculture, bring extreme cold winters and summer droughts to western Europe, and raise sea levels around the Atlantic by 50 to 100 centimeters.

GO GREEN

Scientists warn that current projections may still underestimate the AMOC's decline, as most climate models do not account for <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2022/study-melting-of-greenland-ice-sheet-set-to-raise-sea-levels-by-nearly-a-foot">meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet.</a> New modeling also suggests an AMOC collapse could release up to 640 billion tonnes of CO2 from the Southern Ocean, raising global temperatures by an additional 0.2°C.

Scientists warn that current projections may still underestimate the AMOC's decline, as most climate models do not account for meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet. New modeling also suggests an AMOC collapse could release up to 640 billion tonnes of CO2 from the Southern Ocean, raising global temperatures by an additional 0.2°C.

The AMOC collapse risk has jumped from 5% to over 50% — that's not a drill, that's a civilizational emergency. Cutting emissions to net zero is the only path that avoids plunging Europe into extreme cold, devastating African harvests and triggering catastrophic sea level rise. Every ton of carbon pollution burned today locks in a future that generations won't be able to undo.

The AMOC collapse risk has jumped from 5% to over 50% — that's not a drill, that's a civilizational emergency. Cutting emissions to net zero is the only path that avoids plunging Europe into extreme cold, devastating African harvests and triggering catastrophic sea level rise. Every ton of carbon pollution burned today locks in a future that generations won't be able to undo.

Real-world ocean data confirms AMOC is already weakening at multiple latitudes, and current climate models are actually underestimating the decline — meaning the tipping point could arrive mid-century. A 50% slowdown alone, without full collapse, would devastate agriculture, spike sea levels and freeze Europe. Greenland meltwater isn't even factored in yet, so the actual trajectory is almost certainly worse.

Real-world ocean data confirms AMOC is already weakening at multiple latitudes, and current climate models are actually underestimating the decline — meaning the tipping point could arrive mid-century. A 50% slowdown alone, without full collapse, would devastate agriculture, spike sea levels and freeze Europe. Greenland meltwater isn't even factored in yet, so the actual trajectory is almost certainly worse.

Matthew Todd

Climate Change

Nalini LePetit-Chella and Sabrina Blanchard/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

AMOC Collapse Risk Rises Above 50%, Scientists Warn

World

Climate change

Weather

The collapse of the Atlantic Ocean current is an alarmist trope that has even migrated into the Hollywood imagination. However, the real science doesn't show that there's a pressing threat whatsoever. The process for the slowdown of the current is extremely slow. When questionable modeling and assumptions are stripped away, the case for imminent collapse falls apart.

The collapse of the Atlantic Ocean current is an alarmist trope that has even migrated into the Hollywood imagination. However, the real science doesn't show that there's a pressing threat whatsoever. The process for the slowdown of the current is extremely slow. When questionable modeling and assumptions are stripped away, the case for imminent collapse falls apart.

Ryan Maue

Chris Martz

The AMOC collapse risk has jumped from 5% to over 50% — a full-fledged canary in the coal mine. Cutting emissions to net zero is the only path that avoids plunging Europe into extreme cold, devastating African harvests, and triggering catastrophic sea level rise. Every ton of carbon pollution burned today locks in a future that generations won't be able to undo.

The AMOC collapse risk has jumped from 5% to over 50% — a full-fledged canary in the coal mine. Cutting emissions to net zero is the only path that avoids plunging Europe into extreme cold, devastating African harvests, and triggering catastrophic sea level rise. Every ton of carbon pollution burned today locks in a future that generations won't be able to undo.

There's a 50% chance that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will collapse by December 2056, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will collapse by December 2056, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Marcus Brandt/picture alliance/Getty Images

Study Suggests Atlantic Ocean Current Collapse Risk Has Risen Above 50%

Study Suggests Atlantic Ocean Current Collapse Risk Has Risen Above 50%

AMOCStudy Suggests Atlantic Ocean Current Collapse Risk RisesHas Risen Above 50%, Scientists Warn%

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Study Suggests Atlantic Ocean Current Collapse Risk Has Risen Above 50%

AMOCStudy Suggests Atlantic Ocean Current Collapse Risk RisesHas Risen Above 50%, Scientists Warn%

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