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There's a "wall of fear-mongering and doomerism" in the AI world right now.

"Worrying about AI today is like worrying about overpopulation on Mars."

Concerns that AI could pose a threat to humanity is "preposterously ridiculous."

Claiming AI poses an existential threat is "such an extreme" and risks "wip[ing] out some of its potential benefits."

"I'm more concerned about... the risks that are here and now [than the existential threat of AI]."

Current AI is "not anywhere close" to posing an existential threat but it could in the future.

AI is the "biggest existential threat" to humanity.

AGI's worst-case scenario would be "lights-out for all of us."

Powerful AI systems "taking control" pose an "existential threat."

AI has a "10 to 25 per cent" chance of destroying humanity.

"The most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI... is that literally everyone on Earth will die."

Does AI Pose an Existential Threat to Humanity?

The Beneficial AI Foundation (BAIF), co-founded by MIT professor Max Tegmark and Tufts Researcher Meia Chita-Tegmark, on Monday launched Signal Shot, a formal verification project using Lean theorem prover and AI tools to produce a mathematical proof that Signal's encryption protocol is secure in both design and real-world code.

The Beneficial AI Foundation (BAIF), co-founded by MIT professor Max Tegmark and Tufts Researcher Meia Chita-Tegmark, on Monday launched Signal Shot, a formal verification project using Lean theorem prover and AI tools to produce a mathematical proof that Signal's encryption protocol is secure in both design and real-world code.

Formal verification uses mathematical proof to confirm a system cannot behave outside its specification and has previously been applied in aerospace and autonomous aviation. Though Signal has previously incorporated formal verification into its design, BAIF claims Signal Shot would represent its first application to a messaging protocol of this scale.

Formal verification uses mathematical proof to confirm a system cannot behave outside its specification and has previously been applied in aerospace and autonomous aviation. Though Signal has previously incorporated formal verification into its design, BAIF claims Signal Shot would represent its first application to a messaging protocol of this scale.

BAIF states that Signal Shot will verify security by "writ[ing] down a mathematical model of the protocol and prov[ing] its security properties," before translating Signal's actual Rust code into Lean via a tool called Aeneas and proving it matches that model — producing a logical proof rather than a test result.

BAIF states that Signal Shot will verify security by "writ[ing] down a mathematical model of the protocol and prov[ing] its security properties," before translating Signal's actual Rust code into Lean via a tool called Aeneas and proving it matches that model — producing a logical proof rather than a test result.

The initiative is organized by BAIF in partnership with Lean-focused group LeanFRO and in coordination with Signal. AI will assist by "auto-formalizing research papers, expanding proof sketches into detailed verification plans" and "grinding through the tedious proof steps," work it describes as having previously been "bottlenecked by human effort."

The initiative is organized by BAIF in partnership with Lean-focused group LeanFRO and in coordination with Signal. AI will assist by "auto-formalizing research papers, expanding proof sketches into detailed verification plans" and "grinding through the tedious proof steps," work it describes as having previously been "bottlenecked by human effort."

Last year, AI-assisted mathematical reasoning achieved medal-winning scores for the International Maths Olympiad, whilst more recently Anthropic announced that an unreleased model, Claude Mythos, was highly effective at identifying software vulnerabilities and unsafe for public release due concerns it could be misused to exploit critical infrastructure.

Last year, AI-assisted mathematical reasoning achieved medal-winning scores for the International Maths Olympiad, whilst more recently Anthropic announced that an unreleased model, Claude Mythos, was highly effective at identifying software vulnerabilities and unsafe for public release due concerns it could be misused to exploit critical infrastructure.

Signal underpins end-to-end encryption for over one billion users via its integration into WhatsApp in 2016. Gaps between verified design and have previously led to large public data leaks, inlcuding the 2014 Heartbleed bug where a flaw in OpenSSL went undetected for years and compromised widely used cryptographic systems.

Signal underpins end-to-end encryption for over one billion users via its integration into WhatsApp in 2016. Gaps between verified design and have previously led to large public data leaks, inlcuding the 2014 Heartbleed bug where a flaw in OpenSSL went undetected for years and compromised widely used cryptographic systems.

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Formal verification uses mathematical proof to confirm a system cannot behave outside its specification. It has previously been applied in aerospace and autonomous aviation, with the seL4 microkernel described as the first formally verified general-purpose operating system kernel. BAIF claims Signal Shot would represent its first application to a messaging protocol of this scale.

Formal verification uses mathematical proof to confirm a system cannot behave outside its specification. It has previously been applied in aerospace and autonomous aviation, with the seL4 microkernel described as the first formally verified general-purpose operating system kernel. BAIF claims Signal Shot would represent its first application to a messaging protocol of this scale.

The effort builds on recent advances in AI-assisted reasoning, notably Anthropic's Claude Mythos, reportedly highly effective at identifying software vulnerabilities but not publicly released due to concerns it could be misused to exploit critical infrastructure. The Lean Theorem Prover has also been central to recent breakthroughs in LLM-based mathematical reasoning, including gold medal-level performances at the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad.

The effort builds on recent advances in AI-assisted reasoning, notably Anthropic's Claude Mythos, reportedly highly effective at identifying software vulnerabilities but not publicly released due to concerns it could be misused to exploit critical infrastructure. The Lean Theorem Prover has also been central to recent breakthroughs in LLM-based mathematical reasoning, including gold medal-level performances at the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad.

Signal’s protocol, which underpins end-to-end encryption for over one billion users via its integration into WhatsApp in 2016, has previously incorporated formal verification into its design through work with Cryspen on the Triple Ratchet protocol. However, past failures such as the Heartbleed Bug in 2014 have exposed how gaps between verified design and implementation can persist, after a flaw in OpenSSL went undetected for years and compromised widely used cryptographic systems.

Signal’s protocol, which underpins end-to-end encryption for over one billion users via its integration into WhatsApp in 2016, has previously incorporated formal verification into its design through work with Cryspen on the Triple Ratchet protocol. However, past failures such as the Heartbleed Bug in 2014 have exposed how gaps between verified design and implementation can persist, after a flaw in OpenSSL went undetected for years and compromised widely used cryptographic systems.

For decades, software security has meant chasing bugs faster than attackers. By combining AI with tools like Lean, Signal Shot aims to shift that paradigm toward mathematical certainty. If machines can scale formal proofs once limited by human effort, covering both protocol design and implementation details, provable guarantees could become practical. Signal Shot, therefore, stands to bring the long-promised vision of truly secure communication closer to reality.

For decades, software security has meant chasing bugs faster than attackers. By combining AI with tools like Lean, Signal Shot aims to shift that paradigm toward mathematical certainty. If machines can scale formal proofs once limited by human effort, covering both protocol design and implementation details, provable guarantees could become practical. Signal Shot, therefore, stands to bring the long-promised vision of truly secure communication closer to reality.

Even the most rigorous proof cannot fully capture messy real-world systems. Signal runs across diverse devices, codebases and updates, where unmodeled edge cases can emerge. Heartbleed was a single rogue variable in an implementation nobody had formally modeled, rather than an inherent design flaw. Projects like Signal Shot may strengthen assurance, but full, end-to-end proof of real-world security remains an elusive, if not impossible, goal.

Even the most rigorous proof cannot fully capture messy real-world systems. Signal runs across diverse devices, codebases and updates, where unmodeled edge cases can emerge. Heartbleed was a single rogue variable in an implementation nobody had formally modeled, rather than an inherent design flaw. Projects like Signal Shot may strengthen assurance, but full, end-to-end proof of real-world security remains an elusive, if not impossible, goal.

There is a 50% chance that AIs will program programs that can program AIs by April 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 50% chance that AIs will program programs that can program AIs by April 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

BAIF Launches 'Signal Shot' to Verify Signal Protocol Using AI

BAIF Launches 'Signal Shot' to Verify Signal Protocol Using AI

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BAIF Launches 'Signal Shot' to Verify Signal Protocol Using AI

BAIF Launches 'Signal Shot' to Verify Signal Protocol Using AI

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

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Andreessen

Ng

LeCun

Mitchell

Li

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Musk

Altman

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Yudkowsky

Go Deeper

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