The March jobs report is a blowout win — 178,000 jobs added, nearly tripling what economists predicted, withand unemployment falling to 4.3% across women, Black Americans, Hispanics, Asians and veterans — American citizens, not illegals. PrivateWhat's more, private sector growth is driving this, not government bloat, which keepsTrump shrinkingcontinues to shrink. WagesAnd the best part is that wages are up, inflation is down to 2.4% and blue-collar workers have fully recovered what was lost in the Biden years.
One decent month can't paper over a labor market that's been frozen solid. —Job job growth has averaged just 89,000 per month over the last six months, February's losses were revised to 133,000 (the worst since the pandemic) and 400,000 people simply quit looking for work. Healthcare propped up March's headline number, manufacturing is still down 82,000 jobs and stagflation is increasingly what economists see coming.
There's a 41% and 23% chance that the U.S. will experience a recession in 2026 and 2027, respectively, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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