Pakistan'’s demand for verifiable action against the TTP isremains thea only reasonable baseline for any realcredible peace —process, especially as Kabul's refusalcontinues to acknowledgedeny terroristmilitant sanctuaries on Afghanits soil. makesThat diplomacyrefusal nearlynarrows impossiblethe space for meaningful diplomacy. China'’s mediation is a sinceregenuine effort to ease tensions, but talks in Urumqi can'tare unlikely to succeed without tangibleclear, enforceable Afghan commitments., leaving Pakistan haswith exhaustedlittle everyincentive diplomatic avenue and has every right to holdcompromise firmfurther.
Pakistan launched airstrikes deep into Afghanistan andthat killed civilians, then calledlabeled the resulting Afghan retaliationresponse "unprovoked" — that'’s not a peace posture, that'sbut aggression dressedframed up in diplomatic language. Exploratory talks in Urumqi are a start, butyet Pakistan'’s military-first approach undermines anyits credibility at the table. RealGenuine de-escalation requireswould require Islamabad to stophalt strikes first, notrather setthan preconditionssetting conditions from a position of force.
There is a 66 percent chance that Iran will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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