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"J.P. Morgan Global Research expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026, keeping the funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75%."

"Our view is that the data will guide them toward not cutting."

"The Fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well-positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves."

“With core inflation remaining above the 2% target for some considerable time, we think the Fed will cut its policy rate by only 25 [basis points] in 2026, putting the new Fed chair and President Trump at loggerheads almost immediately.”

"We expect one 25bp reduction in the first quarter of 2026, consistent with the median forecast from top Fed officials in the dot plot for one cut this year."

"Altogether in 2026, the bond market is expecting 50 more basis points of easing, or two 25-point cuts."

"The Fed will deliver rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and September and that the fed funds rate will finish this cycle at 3%-3.25%."

"[We are] expecting two rate cuts in 2026, one in the first half and another in the second."

"Morgan Stanley now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in January, April and June 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 3% to 3.25%."

"Our forecast of additional cuts next year is due to the change in leadership, not our read on the economy."

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve Deliver 3 Rate Cuts in 2026?

The U.S. Federal Reserve voted 11-1 on Wednesday to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran casting the sole dissenting vote in favor of a 0.25 percentage point cut.

The U.S. Federal Reserve voted 11-1 on Wednesday to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran casting the sole dissenting vote in favor of a 0.25 percentage point cut.

The Fed cited uncertainty concerning the impact of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran on the U.S. economy for its decision, as the conflict approached its 20th day. Associated supply disruptions have raised U.S. oil prices to roughly $98 per barrel, while a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline reached $3.88 on Thursday, up from $2.92 the previous month.

The Fed cited uncertainty concerning the impact of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran on the U.S. economy for its decision, as the conflict approached its 20th day. Associated supply disruptions have raised U.S. oil prices to roughly $98 per barrel, while a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline reached $3.88 on Thursday, up from $2.92 the previous month.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the surge was likely to "push up" inflation in the near term — though it was "too soon" to know the duration and scope of these effects. He also reported that core PCE inflation rose to 3%, above the Fed's 2% target, for which he claimed that tariffs were responsible for "between a half and three quarters."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the surge was likely to "push up" inflation in the near term — though it was "too soon" to know the duration and scope of these effects. He also reported that core PCE inflation rose to 3%, above the Fed's 2% target, for which he claimed that tariffs were responsible for "between a half and three quarters."

As a result, the Fed revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%, 0.3 percentage points above its previous estimate of 2.4% in December. The central bank then projects inflation to tail off to 2.2% in 2027 and 2% in 2028.

As a result, the Fed revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%, 0.3 percentage points above its previous estimate of 2.4% in December. The central bank then projects inflation to tail off to 2.2% in 2027 and 2% in 2028.

Powell also declared that the U.S. economy was "expanding at a solid pace." The Fed now expects real GDP growth to be 2.4% in 2026, up 0.1 percentage points from the December prediction, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028.

Powell also declared that the U.S. economy was "expanding at a solid pace." The Fed now expects real GDP growth to be 2.4% in 2026, up 0.1 percentage points from the December prediction, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028.

The labor market, by contrast, was exhibiting signs of "non-existent" growth, with Powell adding that there was "zero net job creation in the private sector." The Fed projects that unemployment will remain at 4.4% throughout 2026 and fall by only 0.2 percentage points over the next two years.

The labor market, by contrast, was exhibiting signs of "non-existent" growth, with Powell adding that there was "zero net job creation in the private sector." The Fed projects that unemployment will remain at 4.4% throughout 2026 and fall by only 0.2 percentage points over the next two years.

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The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran casting the sole dissenting vote in favor of a 0.25 percentage point cut.

The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran casting the sole dissenting vote in favor of a 0.25 percentage point cut.

International oil prices rose above $109 per barrel and the national average price of a gallon of unleaded regular gas climbed to $3.84, up from $2.92 one month prior, following supply disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran.

International oil prices rose above $109 per barrel and the national average price of a gallon of unleaded regular gas climbed to $3.84, up from $2.92 one month prior, following supply disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, showed total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in February, while core PCE prices rose 3.0%, above the Fed's 2% target.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, showed total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in February, while core PCE prices rose 3.0%, above the Fed's 2% target.

The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs in February, a sharp and unexpected reversal after economists had forecast a gain of 60,000 jobs, adding to labor market uncertainty alongside elevated inflation.

The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs in February, a sharp and unexpected reversal after economists had forecast a gain of 60,000 jobs, adding to labor market uncertainty alongside elevated inflation.

Powell said he would not leave the Fed's board until a Department of Justice investigation into building renovations concludes, and that he would serve as chair pro tem if his successor, Kevin Warsh, is not confirmed before his term ends in May.

Powell said he would not leave the Fed's board until a Department of Justice investigation into building renovations concludes, and that he would serve as chair pro tem if his successor, Kevin Warsh, is not confirmed before his term ends in May.

Holding rates steady at 3½ to 3¾ percent is the right call given real uncertainty from Middle East oil disruptions pushing inflation higher. Cutting now would be reckless when core PCE is still running at 3.0 percent and near-term inflation expectations are already rising. The Fed is doing exactly what a responsible central bank should — waiting for the data before making a move.

Holding rates steady at 3½ to 3¾ percent is the right call given real uncertainty from Middle East oil disruptions pushing inflation higher. Cutting now would be reckless when core PCE is still running at 3.0 percent and near-term inflation expectations are already rising. The Fed is doing exactly what a responsible central bank should — waiting for the data before making a move.

The Fed defying Trump's demand for rate cuts is a slap in the face to everyday Americans who need relief now. Powell has politicized the institution and can't leave soon enough — Kevin Warsh can't take over fast enough. Keeping rates frozen while working people struggle is exactly why the Fed has lost credibility.

The Fed defying Trump's demand for rate cuts is a slap in the face to everyday Americans who need relief now. Powell has politicized the institution and can't leave soon enough — Kevin Warsh can't take over fast enough. Keeping rates frozen while working people struggle is exactly why the Fed has lost credibility.

Eric Daugherty

Nick Sortor

Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Iran Oil Shock

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Holding rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% is the right call amid the uncertainty in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Cutting now would be reckless, especially given that core PCE inflation is already running at 3% and near-term inflation expectations are rising. The Fed is doing exactly what a responsible central bank should — waiting for the data before making any commitments.

Holding rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% is the right call amid the uncertainty in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Cutting now would be reckless, especially given that core PCE inflation is already running at 3% and near-term inflation expectations are rising. The Fed is doing exactly what a responsible central bank should — waiting for the data before making any commitments.

The Fed's decision to once again defy U.S. President Donald Trump's reasonable demand for rate cuts is a slap in the face to everyday Americans who need relief now. This latest insult is yet further proof that Powell has politicized the institution and can't leave soon enough. Keeping rates frozen in this manner while working people continue to struggle is exactly why the Fed has lost credibility.

The Fed's decision to once again defy U.S. President Donald Trump's reasonable demand for rate cuts is a slap in the face to everyday Americans who need relief now. This latest insult is yet further proof that Powell has politicized the institution and can't leave soon enough. Keeping rates frozen in this manner while working people continue to struggle is exactly why the Fed has lost credibility.

There is a 2.5% chance that Jerome Powell will cease to be Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before his term is up, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 2.5% chance that Jerome Powell will cease to be Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before his term is up, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Iran Oil Shock

Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Iran Oil Shock

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Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Iran Oil Shock

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