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Fed holds interest rates steady as Iran war drives up oil prices and inflation fears

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"J.P. Morgan Global Research expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026, keeping the funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75%."

"Our view is that the data will guide them toward not cutting."

"The Fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well-positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves."

“With core inflation remaining above the 2% target for some considerable time, we think the Fed will cut its policy rate by only 25 [basis points] in 2026, putting the new Fed chair and President Trump at loggerheads almost immediately.”

"We expect one 25bp reduction in the first quarter of 2026, consistent with the median forecast from top Fed officials in the dot plot for one cut this year."

"Altogether in 2026, the bond market is expecting 50 more basis points of easing, or two 25-point cuts."

"The Fed will deliver rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and September and that the fed funds rate will finish this cycle at 3%-3.25%."

"Morgan Stanley now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in January, April and June 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 3% to 3.25%."

"Our forecast of additional cuts next year is due to the change in leadership, not our read on the economy."

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve Deliver 3 Rate Cuts in 2026?

The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran casting the sole dissenting vote in favor of a 0.25 percentage point cut.

The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran casting the sole dissenting vote in favor of a 0.25 percentage point cut.

International oil prices rose above $109 per barrel and the national average price of a gallon of unleaded regular gas climbed to $3.84, up from $2.92 one month prior, following supply disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran.

International oil prices rose above $109 per barrel and the national average price of a gallon of unleaded regular gas climbed to $3.84, up from $2.92 one month prior, following supply disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, showed total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in February, while core PCE prices rose 3.0%, above the Fed's 2% target.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, showed total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in February, while core PCE prices rose 3.0%, above the Fed's 2% target.

Fed officials revised their 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%, from a prior estimate of 2.4%, citing the oil price spike from the Iran conflict and lingering price pressures from tariffs.

Fed officials revised their 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%, from a prior estimate of 2.4%, citing the oil price spike from the Iran conflict and lingering price pressures from tariffs.

The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs in February, a sharp and unexpected reversal after economists had forecast a gain of 60,000 jobs, adding to labor market uncertainty alongside elevated inflation.

The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs in February, a sharp and unexpected reversal after economists had forecast a gain of 60,000 jobs, adding to labor market uncertainty alongside elevated inflation.

Powell said he would not leave the Fed's board until a Department of Justice investigation into building renovations concludes, and that he would serve as chair pro tem if his successor, Kevin Warsh, is not confirmed before his term ends in May.

Powell said he would not leave the Fed's board until a Department of Justice investigation into building renovations concludes, and that he would serve as chair pro tem if his successor, Kevin Warsh, is not confirmed before his term ends in May.

Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Iran Oil Shock

USFed holdsHolds interestRates ratesSteady Amid Iran Oil Shock

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Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Iran Oil Shock

USFed holdsHolds interestRates ratesSteady Amid Iran Oil Shock

The Controversies

JPMorgan

Doyle

Powell

Economics

Management

Hansen

Sachs

Stanley

America

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