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Snapshot 1:Wed, Mar 18, 2026 12:40:03 PM GMT last edited by Tareq

Israel Kills Another Top Iranian Official Overnight

Above: Esmaeil Khatib (C), Iran's intelligence minister, alongside the country's President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on Aug. 17, 2024. Image credit: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

As Iran's intelligence minister, Khatib played a significant role during the recent protests throughout Iran, both with regards to the arrests and killing of protesters. As the head of the regime's primary intelligence organization, he also oversaw surveillance, espionage, and the execution of covert operations worldwide, as well as terror attacks directed against the U.S. and Israel.

As stated after the assassination of Ali Larijani, the killing of one individual will not strike a decisive blow to the Iranian government. As demonstrated by the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there are robust mechanisms in place to ensure the continuity of the governance structure. Israel and the U.S. do not seem to understand this basic principle.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 15% chance that the U.S. and Iran will agree to a ceasefire before May 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0