As Iran's intelligence minister, Khatib played a significant role during the recent protests throughout Iran, both with regards to the arrests and killing of protesters. As the head of the regime's primary intelligence organization, he also oversaw surveillance, espionage, and the execution of covert operations worldwide, as well as terror attacks directed against the U.S. and Israel.
As stated after the assassination of Ali Larijani, the killing of one individual will not strike a decisive blow to the Iranian government. As demonstrated by the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there are robust mechanisms in place to ensure the continuity of the governance structure. Israel and the U.S. do not seem to understand this basic principle.
There's a 15% chance that the U.S. and Iran will agree to a ceasefire before May 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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