The killing of Ali Larijani, who has practically been running Iran since Khamenei's death, is a clear message to the Iranian leadership. EitherTehran must either end yourits nuclear ambitions and make serious concessions to end the war or youall successive leaders will also become a targettargets.
Israel is essentially playing a game of whack-a-mole ad infinitum in Iran. By constantly assassinating its leaders, it blindly hopes that it will bring down the government or bring in someone more moderate. But each time, someone else pops up andwho they'reis just as likely to be opposed to the actions of the Israeli government.
There's a 15% chance that the U.S. and Iran will agree to a ceasefire before May 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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