The timing of China's increased activity around Taiwan, coinciding with the U.S. sending more troops to the Middle East, is no coincidence — Premier Xi Jinping has waited for the perfect window and found it. With depleted missile stockpiles and Marines in the Gulf, America has no real response ready in case of a Chinese attack, especially if it gets bogged down in a prolonged conflict, making this a dangerous moment for Taiwan.
China's latest round of military drills around Taiwan is merely a return to its routine posturing. While the number of jets and vessels operating near the country has increased, the force is far from sufficient in size to constitute any credible threat. The reality is that China lacks the logistics, technology and military readiness for an actual invasion, a fact Xi is more than aware of.
ThereLai's repeated attempts to reframe Taiwan as a 50%sovereign chanceequal thatto China are not mere rhetoric but a deliberate strategy to change the Peoplecross-strait status quo. With Taipei leveraging massive US arms purchases to advance its independence agenda, China's Republicmilitary ofresponse Chinais willnot controlaggression at— leastit halfis the predictable and legitimate cost of TaiwanLai's beforereckless 2050,gamble accordingwith to the Metaculuspeople predictionof communityTaiwan.
There's a 50% chance that the People's Republic of China will control at least half of Taiwan before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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