The Hindu

China lowers economy growth target to 4.5-5% amid global, domestic uncertainties

Macau Business

China sets 2026 economic growth target at 4.55 per cent

_The_Prophet__

alton-telegraph

China Economic Ambitions Hit Limits To Growth 21951579.Php

CBankingEditor

Global Times

China has set an economic growth target of 4.5 percent to 5 percent this year. How should we view it?

News.com.au

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China sets lowest growth target since 1991 as economy struggles to keep momentum

BBC News

China sets lowest economic growth target since 1991

Australian Financial Review (AFR)

China sets lowest growth target for three decades as old model falters

The Globe and Mail

China sets lowest growth target in decades amid drastic changes to global market

The Korea Times

China sets lower economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% as consumption lags

The Straits Times

China trims GDP target to 4.5%-5%, first downgrade in 3 years amid weak domestic market

XINHUA

China sets 2026 economic growth target at 4.5-5 pct

The Manila Times

Global Times: China has set an economic growth target of 4.5 percent to 5 percent this year. How should we view it?

Chinadaily

China confident of achieving 4.5-5% growth target as reforms deepen

Metaculus

Will China's GDP Overtake the US Before 2030?

Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Centre for Economics and Business Research

Capital Economics

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

George Magnus

Eswar Prasad

Nathan Sheets

Desmond Lachman

Statista

Rob Subbaraman

JCER

Chris Giles

"China's nominal gross domestic product is unlikely to surpass that of the U.S. in the next few decades."

"This idea of China becoming the world's biggest economy may not happen, actually."

"China probably won't ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis."

"The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining."

"China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035."

"China will overtake the US as the world's top economy in about 2035 with a high probability."

"[T]he size of China's economy in USD terms will overtake the US in 2028."

"China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028."

Will China's GDP Overtake the US, And If So When?

Andrew Ng

Eric Schmidt

Chuck Schumer

Brad Smith

Nestor Maslej

Ruth Porat

Ylli Bajraktari

Bruegel

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

Brandon J. Weichert

Clement Delangue

Zhou Hongyi

Joseph Tsai

Huey-Meei Chang

Craig S. Smith

Jeffrey Ding

Ray Perrault

Susana Martinez

Niall Ferguson

Larry Elliot

Marcel Munch

Pavel Durov

John Rush

"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

China announced an economic growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, marking the first formal downgrade since 2023 and the lowest target since 1991. Premier Li Qiang presented the target to the National People's Congress on March 5, 2026.

China announced an economic growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, marking the first formal downgrade since 2023 and the lowest target since 1991. Premier Li Qiang presented the target to the National People's Congress on March 5, 2026.

The government set a budget deficit of around 4 percent of GDP for 2026, maintaining the level from 2025. China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds for major national strategies and 4.4 trillion yuan in local government bonds.

The government set a budget deficit of around 4 percent of GDP for 2026, maintaining the level from 2025. China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds for major national strategies and 4.4 trillion yuan in local government bonds.

China's defense budget will increase 7 percent to more than $275 billion in 2026, down from 7.2 percent growth last year. The increase aligns with Beijing's goal to modernize its military by 2035 amid regional tensions including over Taiwan.

China's defense budget will increase 7 percent to more than $275 billion in 2026, down from 7.2 percent growth last year. The increase aligns with Beijing's goal to modernize its military by 2035 amid regional tensions including over Taiwan.

Main development targets for 2026 include a surveyed urban unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, creation of over 12 million new urban jobs and an increase in the consumer price index of around 2 percent, according to the government work report.

Main development targets for 2026 include a surveyed urban unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, creation of over 12 million new urban jobs and an increase in the consumer price index of around 2 percent, according to the government work report.

Premier Li Qiang stated that China will actively boost consumption and implement an income growth plan for urban and rural residents. The country will earmark 250 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds for consumer goods trade-in programs.

Premier Li Qiang stated that China will actively boost consumption and implement an income growth plan for urban and rural residents. The country will earmark 250 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds for consumer goods trade-in programs.

A senior official stated the growth target is aligned with China's long-term objectives through 2035 and ranks among the highest goals set by major economies worldwide. The target range allows local authorities to tailor growth goals to local conditions.

A senior official stated the growth target is aligned with China's long-term objectives through 2035 and ranks among the highest goals set by major economies worldwide. The target range allows local authorities to tailor growth goals to local conditions.

China Sets Lowest Growth Target Since 1991 at 4.5-5%

China Sets Lowest Growth Target Since 1991 at 4.5-5%

The Controversies

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

JCER

Magnus

Economics

Prasad

Sachs

Times

Subbaraman

Research

Tsai

Ding

Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

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China Sets Lowest Growth Target Since 1991 at 4.5-5%

China Sets Lowest Growth Target Since 1991 at 4.5-5%

The Controversies

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

JCER

Magnus

Economics

Prasad

Sachs

Times

Subbaraman

Research

Tsai

Ding

Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

Go Deeper

Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free NewslettersSign Up for Our Free Newsletters

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