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Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

Ron DeSantis

Lindsey Graham

Karoline Leavitt

William A. Galston

Link Lauren

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DC_Draino

Michael Wolff

Mike Cernovich

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Good Authority

Amy Walter

Bill Press

Daniel Di Martino

Rachel Reisner

"It [2026 Midterms]'s going to be dominated by what party is making you safe and prosperous. It's not going to be dominated by subsidies [Trump's presidential actions]. It's going to be dominated by the big stuff."

“A chunk of [GOP voters] who put them in power in 2024 are Trump-specific voters; they will vote GOP down ballot when Trump is running but won’t turn out to vote for a typical congressman in a midterm when Trump isn’t running.”

"As we have seen, the president’s party almost always loses ground in the midterm election following his victory... [but] if Republicans are to have a serious chance of retaining control of the House, President Trump will have to improve his job approval significantly."

"If legal immigrants begin to be deported without having committed any crime [by Trump admin], get ready for Republicans to lose the [2026] midterms by a landslide."

“The President will help his Republican friends on Capitol Hill get reelected [in 2026 Midterms], and work to pick up new seats across the country.”

"President Trump is the main event for the party [2026 midterms]."

"Republicans have reason to worry that the president’s political decline will affect their performance in next year [2026]’s midterm elections."

“All these people that he [Trump] helps — he doesn’t help everybody — but for those he does, he’s a difference maker, and he’s certainly a turnout machine.”

"Whether congressional GOPers can turn things around for the ‘26 midterms is more dependent on Trump than ever."

“All of the kinds of things [Trump's] doing now will result in him losing—certainly losing the House of Representatives."

"The success or failure of the Grand Old Party (GOP) next year [2026 US Midterms] will be decided on the strength or weakness of President Trump’s coattails."

"What’s crazy is that the 2026 midterms are entirely in Trump’s control."

Will Donald Trump be a Primary Voting Factor in the 2026 U.S. Midterms?

Donald Trump

Nancy Pelosi

Kevin McCarthy

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Mike Johnson

Hakeem Jeffries

Gavin Newsom

Thom Tillis

Nancy Mace

James Carville

Manuel Bonder

Paul Begala

Mike Marinella

Newt Gingrich

Larry Diamond

Larry Sabato

"I’m very, very bullish about the midterms. I know that we are going to win because we have a great record to run on"

"[MAGA voters] will need to show up at the ballot box; President Trump and Republicans are going to make that happen.”

"If this story is properly told, we should win the Midterm Elections in RECORD NUMBERS."

"[Trump voters] won’t turn out to vote for a typical congressman in a midterm when Trump isn’t running."

“If we [GOP] are where we are today in the beginning of the second quarter [of 2026], then I think we’re in for a really rough time in November.”

“If we fail to pass legislation that permanently secures the border, addresses the affordability crisis, improves healthcare, and restores law and order, we [GOP] will lose this majority.”

“Our best shot was the first 6-9 months. And when Republicans likely lose the midterms it will become total and complete political war and gridlock once again.”

"I think we will win them back, probably all of them, maybe more, in this election, and Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House."

“He’s going to definitely deal with a Democratic House. I think it’s more likely that he’ll be dealing with a Democratic Senate.”

"Next [2026] year when we will take back control of the House of Representatives."

Will the Republicans Lose Control of Either Houses of Congress in the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections?

Richard Hasen

Marc Elias

David Becker

Michael S. Kang

Rick Hasen

Brennan Center for Justice

Lisa Kashinsky

Richard H. Pildes

Debra Cleaver

Protect Democracy

Michael Schwarz

James Gardner

"The president does not have any legal authority over the administration of mail voting."

"The president does not have direct executive power over elections to ban mail voting."

"The President plays literally no role in elections, and that's by design of the founders."

"[Trump's mail-in ballot ban] would violate the Constitution and is a major step to prevent free and fair elections."

“The President has no power constitutionally to dictate to states the manner in which they conduct national elections."

"[Trump] would need the cooperation of Congress [to ban mail-in ballots], which I think he'd be unlikely to get to have any kind of federal interference with how the midterm elections will be run."

"While the attorney general does not have the authority to prevent states from following their own laws for counting ballots, this command sets up a potential conflict between the federal government and the states over the counting of ballots in the days after Election Day."

"[Trump] might soon announce a long-promised executive order on the subject."

“The White House is working on an executive order to strengthen our elections in this country, and to ensure that there cannot be blatant fraud, as we’ve seen in California, with their universal mail-in voting system."

"I’m going to do an executive order ending vote by mail.'”

Will Trump Ban US States From Using Mail-In Ballots by the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Primary elections took place on March 3, 2026, in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas, marking the first midterm contests of the year. Polls were open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. in Texas, with voters selecting party nominees for federal, statewide and local races.

Primary elections took place on March 3, 2026, in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas, marking the first midterm contests of the year. Polls were open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. in Texas, with voters selecting party nominees for federal, statewide and local races.

Early voting in Texas exceeded 2.5 million ballots, breaking the previous record of 2 million set before the 2020 presidential primary. Democratic early turnout reached approximately 1.5 million votes, more than double the 625,000 cast in the 2022 midterm cycle.

Early voting in Texas exceeded 2.5 million ballots, breaking the previous record of 2 million set before the 2020 presidential primary. Democratic early turnout reached approximately 1.5 million votes, more than double the 625,000 cast in the 2022 midterm cycle.

The Republican U.S. Senate primary in Texas featured incumbent Sen. John Cornyn against Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. President Trump declined to endorse any candidate, stating he supported all three, with polls suggesting the race would likely proceed to a May runoff.

The Republican U.S. Senate primary in Texas featured incumbent Sen. John Cornyn against Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. President Trump declined to endorse any candidate, stating he supported all three, with polls suggesting the race would likely proceed to a May runoff.

The Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Texas pitted U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett against state Rep. James Talarico. Crockett emphasized her combative style against Republicans, while Talarico promoted a message of unity and reaching across party lines to appeal to independent voters.

The Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Texas pitted U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett against state Rep. James Talarico. Crockett emphasized her combative style against Republicans, while Talarico promoted a message of unity and reaching across party lines to appeal to independent voters.

Republicans in Gillespie and Eastland counties conducted hand counts of primary ballots, a process that previously took nearly 24 hours in Gillespie County during 2024 and resulted in errors. Election officials faced pressure to meet the state's 24-hour deadline for reporting results.

Republicans in Gillespie and Eastland counties conducted hand counts of primary ballots, a process that previously took nearly 24 hours in Gillespie County during 2024 and resulted in errors. Election officials faced pressure to meet the state's 24-hour deadline for reporting results.

The 2026 primaries were the first statewide elections following a mid-decade congressional redistricting in Texas that redrew all 38 U.S. House districts. The redistricting, passed in 2025 under pressure from President Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott, aimed to create five additional Republican seats.

The 2026 primaries were the first statewide elections following a mid-decade congressional redistricting in Texas that redrew all 38 U.S. House districts. The redistricting, passed in 2025 under pressure from President Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott, aimed to create five additional Republican seats.

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Texas primary elections took place on March 3, 2026, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. across the state. Early voting turnout exceeded 2.5 million people, breaking the previous record of 2 million set before the 2020 presidential primary.

Texas primary elections took place on March 3, 2026, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. across the state. Early voting turnout exceeded 2.5 million people, breaking the previous record of 2 million set before the 2020 presidential primary.

The Republican U.S. Senate primary featured incumbent Senator John Cornyn facing challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt. President Trump declined to endorse any candidate, stating he supported all three.

The Republican U.S. Senate primary featured incumbent Senator John Cornyn facing challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt. President Trump declined to endorse any candidate, stating he supported all three.

The Democratic U.S. Senate primary contest featured U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett from Dallas competing against state Representative James Talarico from Austin. Both candidates sought to position themselves as the best choice to lead Democrats.

The Democratic U.S. Senate primary contest featured U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett from Dallas competing against state Representative James Talarico from Austin. Both candidates sought to position themselves as the best choice to lead Democrats.

Gillespie and Eastland counties in Texas conducted hand counts of Republican primary ballots. In 2024, Gillespie County's hand count took hundreds of people nearly 24 hours to complete, and officials later discovered they had made errors.

Gillespie and Eastland counties in Texas conducted hand counts of Republican primary ballots. In 2024, Gillespie County's hand count took hundreds of people nearly 24 hours to complete, and officials later discovered they had made errors.

Dallas County voters were required to cast ballots at their assigned neighborhood precincts on Election Day, a change from early voting when residents could vote at any of 74 universal voting centers. The change was pushed by the county Republican party.

Dallas County voters were required to cast ballots at their assigned neighborhood precincts on Election Day, a change from early voting when residents could vote at any of 74 universal voting centers. The change was pushed by the county Republican party.

Democratic early voting turnout reached approximately 1.3 to 1.5 million voters, more than double the 625,000 total from the 2022 midterm cycle. Republican early voting totaled around 1.2 to 1.3 million, representing a smaller increase from 2022.

Democratic early voting turnout reached approximately 1.3 to 1.5 million voters, more than double the 625,000 total from the 2022 midterm cycle. Republican early voting totaled around 1.2 to 1.3 million, representing a smaller increase from 2022.

Texas, NC, Arkansas Hold First 2026 Midterm Primaries

Texas, PrimaryNC, ShattersArkansas RecordsHold withFirst 2.5M2026 EarlyMidterm VotersPrimaries

The Controversies

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Lauren

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Johnson

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Mace

Greene

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Justice

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Texas, NC, Arkansas Hold First 2026 Midterm Primaries

Texas, PrimaryNC, ShattersArkansas RecordsHold withFirst 2.5M2026 EarlyMidterm VotersPrimaries

The Controversies

Graham

DeSantis

Brookings

Martino

Leavitt

Lauren

Wiles

Wolff

LSE

Johnson

RNC

Trump

DeSantis

Tillis

Mace

Greene

Pelosi

Carville

Democracy

Becker

Elias

Hasen

Justice

Schwarz

Leavitt

Trump

Go Deeper

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