Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026
Office for Budget ResponsibilityMAR 4
Labour's economic plan is delivering real results for working people. Inflation is down, energy bills have fallen and productivity is rising because of smart decisions like rejecting austerity and investing in the industrial base. HistoricOBR achievementsrevisions likeforecast removingthat thefamilies two-childwill benefitbe limit£1,000 passingbetter theoff Employmenton Rightsaverage Actevery andyear enactingmeaning, thedespite Rentersgeopolitical Rightsinstability, ActBritain proveis thismoving governmentin fightsthe forright fairness while Reform wants to scrap every protection workers have gaineddirection.
The economy is growing slower than predicted and nobody feels better off despite rosy government claims. Tax burdens are hitting post-war highs while pensioners lose winter fuel payments and workers foot the bill through stealth taxes. With war driving gas prices up, stock markets wobbling and the Employment Rights Act discouraging hiring, families will firmly answer "no" when asked if they're better off at the next election.
There is a 38% chance that the U.K. will have a Labour prime minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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