Office for Budget Responsibility

Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026

Consumer price inflation

Office for National Statistics

Metaculus

Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

GuidoFawkes

The Telegraph

Reeves Wants To Be Judged By Families Feeling Better Off

Substack

An economy that works for all

YouGov

How the government is handling the economy in the UK

The most important issues facing the country

RachelReevesMP

Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted): %

BBC News

UK economic growth forecast cut for this year

Guardian

Spring forecast: UK unemployment expected to peak at 5.3% as Reeves says her economic plan is right one - live updates

PolitlcsUK

Daily Mirror

Spring Statement 2026: What it means for you - from tax to pensions and petrol

GB News

Spring Statement: Economy GDP DOWNGRADED by OBR in assessment of Rachel Reeves's fiscal plans

The Times

Spring forecast 2026 key points: a summary of the highlights

Spring forecast: Reeves insists Labour has right economic plan as 2026 growth downgraded

GOV.UK

Spring Forecast 2026: The right economic plan for Britain

Sky News

UK growth forecast downgraded and unemployment will peak this year, chancellor reveals

Ben Riley-Smith

Goldman Sachs

KPMG

Naomi Smith

Robert Colvile

UK Trade & Business Commission

Sharon Graham

"Today's #GDP growth figures are still a long way from @Keir_Starmer's target of 2.5% and it is far from clear that we are heading in the right direction."

"Labour are promising to be the fastest-growing country in the G7. And our growth forecast is 2% or less every single year of this parliament? Yeah, good luck with that."

"The economy is expected to grow by just over 1 per cent this year, rising to 2 per cent in 2025."

Research shows that "deep alignment with the EU on goods and services will deliver 2.2% economic growth to the UK."

"Closer ties with the EU could deliver growth of up to 2.2%. Clawing back up to half the damage caused by Brexit."

Will the UK Economy Grow By 2% GDP In a Year Under Labour?

John Rentoul

Chris Hopkins

Wes Streeting

Lee Harris

The Daily Express

John Rees

George Galloway

Samara Gill

Isabel Oakeshott

Esther McVey

Charlie Rowley

Daily Mail

"The way things are going, just a year in — I genuinely think he will leave. I think he will be forced out."

"Starmer might have to go in months."

"I don't think he will survive a year [as prime minister]."

"Of course [he will be prime minister till 2029]."

How Long Will Keir Starmer Be UK's Prime Minister?

The Office for Budget Responsiblity has released its Spring Forecast for 2026. Whilst the independent economic body has revised GDP down in 2025-26, productivity has been raised on average between 2027-30 with real GDP also seeing a "marginal" upgrade.

The Office for Budget Responsiblity has released its Spring Forecast for 2026. Whilst the independent economic body has revised GDP down in 2025-26, productivity has been raised on average between 2027-30 with real GDP also seeing a "marginal" upgrade.

Public sector net borrowing is projected to fall from 4.3% of GDP in 2025-26 to 1.6% in 2030-31, representing a reduction of nearly £18 billion compared to the autumn forecast. The Chancellor's fiscal headroom against her stability rule has also increased to £23.6 billion, up from £21.7 billion.

Public sector net borrowing is projected to fall from 4.3% of GDP in 2025-26 to 1.6% in 2030-31, representing a reduction of nearly £18 billion compared to the autumn forecast. The Chancellor's fiscal headroom against her stability rule has also increased to £23.6 billion, up from £21.7 billion.

Unemployment is forecast peak at 5.3% 2026 before declining to 4.1% by 2030, having sat at 4.2% in July 2024 before increasing to 5.2% in December 2025.

Unemployment is forecast peak at 5.3% 2026 before declining to 4.1% by 2030, having sat at 4.2% in July 2024 before increasing to 5.2% in December 2025.

U.K. public sector net debt as a share of GDP has nearly tripled over the past two decades and is nearly double the advanced-economy average on a comparable basis. The cost of servicing this debt increased from £39 billion in 2019-20 to £106 billion in 2024-25.

U.K. public sector net debt as a share of GDP has nearly tripled over the past two decades and is nearly double the advanced-economy average on a comparable basis. The cost of servicing this debt increased from £39 billion in 2019-20 to £106 billion in 2024-25.

The OBR predicts inflation will return to its 2% target in the second half of 2026, having reached 4.2% in July 2025, earlier than what had been forecast in November. National Accounts taxes as a share of GDP are forecast to increase from 36% this year to 38% by 2030-31, a historical high.

The OBR predicts inflation will return to its 2% target in the second half of 2026, having reached 4.2% in July 2025, earlier than what had been forecast in November. National Accounts taxes as a share of GDP are forecast to increase from 36% this year to 38% by 2030-31, a historical high.

Commenting on the data, Chancellor Rachel Reeves claimed that her economic plan was "the right one for Britain." This comes as YouGov polling shows the economy to be the self-perceived most important issue facing the country, while 73% believe the government is handling the economy badly.

Rachel Reeves

Commenting on the data, Chancellor Rachel Reeves claimed that her economic plan was "the right one for Britain." This comes as YouGov polling shows the economy to be the self-perceived most important issue facing the country, while 73% believe the government is handling the economy badly.

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The Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded UK GDP growth for 2026 from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent, reflecting weaker than expected data in the final quarter of 2025. However, growth forecasts for 2027 and 2028 were revised upward to 1.6 per cent for both years.

The Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded UK GDP growth for 2026 from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent, reflecting weaker than expected data in the final quarter of 2025. However, growth forecasts for 2027 and 2028 were revised upward to 1.6 per cent for both years.

Public sector net borrowing is projected to fall from 4.3 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 to 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2030-31, representing a reduction of nearly £18 billion compared to the autumn forecast. The Chancellor's fiscal headroom against her stability rule increased to £23.6 billion.

Public sector net borrowing is projected to fall from 4.3 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 to 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2030-31, representing a reduction of nearly £18 billion compared to the autumn forecast. The Chancellor's fiscal headroom against her stability rule increased to £23.6 billion.

The OBR forecasts unemployment will peak at 5.3 per cent in 2026 before declining to 4.1 per cent by 2030, which would be lower than when Labour came to power. The peak unemployment rate is one-third of a percentage point higher than forecast in November.

The OBR forecasts unemployment will peak at 5.3 per cent in 2026 before declining to 4.1 per cent by 2030, which would be lower than when Labour came to power. The peak unemployment rate is one-third of a percentage point higher than forecast in November.

UK public sector net debt as a share of GDP has nearly tripled over the past two decades and is nearly double the advanced-economy average on a comparable basis. The cost of servicing this debt increased from £39 billion in 2019-20 to £106 billion in 2024-25.

UK public sector net debt as a share of GDP has nearly tripled over the past two decades and is nearly double the advanced-economy average on a comparable basis. The cost of servicing this debt increased from £39 billion in 2019-20 to £106 billion in 2024-25.

The OBR predicts inflation will return to its 2 per cent target in the second half of 2026, earlier than forecast in November. National Accounts taxes as a share of GDP are forecast to increase from 36 per cent this year to 38 per cent by 2030-31, a historical high.

The OBR predicts inflation will return to its 2 per cent target in the second half of 2026, earlier than forecast in November. National Accounts taxes as a share of GDP are forecast to increase from 36 per cent this year to 38 per cent by 2030-31, a historical high.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced she will meet North Sea energy industry leaders to discuss implications from the Middle East conflict. The forecasts were finalized before the escalation of conflict in the region, which has caused oil prices to surge.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced she will meet North Sea energy industry leaders to discuss implications from the Middle East conflict. The forecasts were finalized before the escalation of conflict in the region, which has caused oil prices to surge.

UK GDP Growth Cut to 1.1% for 2026, Borrowing to Fall

UK GDP Growth Cut to 1.1% for 2026, Borrowing to Fall

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Colvile

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Rowley

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UK GDP Growth Cut to 1.1% for 2026, Borrowing to Fall

UK GDP Growth Cut to 1.1% for 2026, Borrowing to Fall

The Controversies

Graham

Colvile

Responsibility

Commission

Smith

Rowley

News

Gill

Streeting

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