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Spring Statement: Economy GDP DOWNGRADED by OBR in assessment of Rachel Reeves's fiscal plans

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UK growth forecast downgraded and unemployment will peak this year, chancellor reveals

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Goldman Sachs

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UK Trade & Business Commission

Sharon Graham

"Today's #GDP growth figures are still a long way from @Keir_Starmer's target of 2.5% and it is far from clear that we are heading in the right direction."

"Labour are promising to be the fastest-growing country in the G7. And our growth forecast is 2% or less every single year of this parliament? Yeah, good luck with that."

"The economy is expected to grow by just over 1 per cent this year, rising to 2 per cent in 2025."

Research shows that "deep alignment with the EU on goods and services will deliver 2.2% economic growth to the UK."

"Closer ties with the EU could deliver growth of up to 2.2%. Clawing back up to half the damage caused by Brexit."

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"The way things are going, just a year in — I genuinely think he will leave. I think he will be forced out."

"Starmer might have to go in months."

"I don't think he will survive a year [as prime minister]."

"Of course [he will be prime minister till 2029]."

How Long Will Keir Starmer Be UK's Prime Minister?

The Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded the UK's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent, reflecting weaker than expected economic data in late 2025. However, growth projections for 2027 and 2028 were revised upward to 1.6 per cent.

The Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded the UK's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent, reflecting weaker than expected economic data in late 2025. However, growth projections for 2027 and 2028 were revised upward to 1.6 per cent.

Public sector net borrowing is forecast to fall from 4.3 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 to 1.6 per cent by 2030-31, representing a reduction of nearly £18 billion compared to autumn projections. The Chancellor's fiscal headroom against her stability rule increased to £23.6 billion.

Public sector net borrowing is forecast to fall from 4.3 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 to 1.6 per cent by 2030-31, representing a reduction of nearly £18 billion compared to autumn projections. The Chancellor's fiscal headroom against her stability rule increased to £23.6 billion.

UK public sector net debt as a share of GDP has nearly tripled over the past two decades and is nearly double the advanced economy average on a comparable basis. The cost of servicing this debt increased from £39 billion in 2019-20 to £106 billion in 2024-25.

UK public sector net debt as a share of GDP has nearly tripled over the past two decades and is nearly double the advanced economy average on a comparable basis. The cost of servicing this debt increased from £39 billion in 2019-20 to £106 billion in 2024-25.

The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 5.3 per cent in 2026 before declining to 4.1 per cent by 2030, which would be lower than when Labour took office. The OBR attributes the near term rise to weaker labour demand and cyclical economic weakness.

The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 5.3 per cent in 2026 before declining to 4.1 per cent by 2030, which would be lower than when Labour took office. The OBR attributes the near term rise to weaker labour demand and cyclical economic weakness.

Inflation is forecast to return to the 2 per cent target in late 2026, earlier than previously expected, with CPI inflation projected to fall from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent in 2026. The forecasts were finalized before the escalation of Middle East conflict.

Inflation is forecast to return to the 2 per cent target in late 2026, earlier than previously expected, with CPI inflation projected to fall from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent in 2026. The forecasts were finalized before the escalation of Middle East conflict.

Real GDP per person is forecast to grow at an average rate of 1.1 per cent annually between 2026 and 2030, with total growth of 5.6 per cent over the Parliament. The Chancellor stated people would be over £1,000 a year better off after inflation by the next election.

Real GDP per person is forecast to grow at an average rate of 1.1 per cent annually between 2026 and 2030, with total growth of 5.6 per cent over the Parliament. The Chancellor stated people would be over £1,000 a year better off after inflation by the next election.

UK GDP Growth Cut to 1.1% for 2026, Borrowing to Fall

RachelUK ReevesGDP DeliversGrowth Cut to 1.1% for 2026, SpringBorrowing Statementto Fall

The Controversies

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Colvile

Responsibility

Commission

Smith

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News

Gill

Streeting

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