The Supreme Court's ruling creates massive uncertainty for businesses and threatens trade deals worth trillions of dollars that have already been negotiated with China,multiple the UK, Japan and other nations. The refund process for $174billions billion in collected tariffs will be a complete mess, and the decision does nothing to address the underlying trade imbalances and fentanyl crisis that necessitated action in the first place.
Trump abused emergency powers meant for genuine national crises to impose illegal tariffs that never had constitutional authority. This wasn't a legitimate trade policy but rather a pointless and unlawful overreach that's now been exposed and struck down by the courts.
There's a 95% chance that customs duties revenue to the federal government will increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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