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Snapshot 5:Fri, Feb 20, 2026 11:20:46 AM GMT last edited by Edward

US, Indonesia Finalize Trade Deal

US, Indonesia SignFinalize Trade Deal Cutting Tariffs, Boosting Ties

Above: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto (L), U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer (C) after signing the reciprocal trade deal in Washington, D.C., U.S. on Feb. 19. Image credit: @USTradeRep/X

The Spin

TheThis tariffdeal reductionis froma 32significant percentdiplomatic tovictory 19for percentboth representsthe aU.S. majorand diplomaticIndonesia. victoryThrough achieved through tough personal negotiations. Thisand dealbargaining, positionsthese Indonesiacountries amonghave thesecured lowesta win-tariffedwin nationsagreement inthat Asiawill andmark strengthensthe itsbeginning globalof tradea standinggolden rightage afterfor securingU.S.-Indonesian arelations, Europeanone Unionthat freereduces tradetariffs agreement.on TheIndonesia agreementto marksamong the beginninglowest ofin aAsia newand goldensecures agefair trading terms for the U.S.-Indonesian alliance.

AOnce 19again, percentthe tariffTrump onadministration Indonesianhas goodsexposed isn'tits utter lack of economic understanding, celebrating a deal atthat allplaces whena Indonesia19% paystax nothing on American exports.consumers, Americanswhile nowtheir faceIndonesian protectionismcounterparts andpay highernothing. pricesThrough whiledisastrous Indonesiansterms enjoylike freethese, tradethis andpresidency loweris costs.not Thestrengthening numbersthe areAmerican actuallyconsumer worsebut thancrippling thethem originalwith Liberationevery Daytrade tariffsblunder.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 95% chance that customs duties revenue to the federal government will increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars), according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0