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Update: China opposes U.S. fabrication of pretexts for its resumption of nuclear tests

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CTBTO

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State Department: No 'Gentleman's Agreement' Between US, Russia On Expired Nuclear Treaty

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Statement to the Conference on Disarmament

TASS

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Satellite Imagery Analysis of Chinas Alleged 2020 Nuclear Test at Lop Nur

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US says will match alleged Chinese low-yield nuclear tests

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Trump offers China strategic stability talks to prevent arms race

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Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw on the End of the New START Treaty

Reuters

US reveals new details of alleged Chinese nuclear test

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U.S. Accuses China of Conducting Covert Nuclear Test in 2020

Firstpost

US may restart nuclear tests to match China's alleged 'low-yield' nuclear testing

Metaculus

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Alexander Lukashenko

William Burns

Dmitry Peskov

Fiona Hill

Sergei Markov

Oleksiy Reznikov

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Barry Posen

James Acton

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Nicolo Fasola

Matthew Bunn

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Robert Gates

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William Alberque

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Ira Helfand

"I think it's extremely unlikely that he [Putin] would move in that [using tactical nuclear weapons] direction in the current conflict."

"I don't see Putin deciding to use a nuclear weapon."

"There are reasons to believe Moscow would not press the nuclear button."

"Though it is unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the risks are real."

Putin has sent many signals that "he will use battlefield nuclear weapons from his arsenal of 6,000 such weapons to win the war."

"Well, yes, he [Putin] would [launch a nuclear attack]."

Would Putin Detonate Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Lloyd Austin

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Scott Ritter

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Global Times

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

On February 6, United States Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno accused China of conducting nuclear weapons tests that achieved supercritical yields, including one test on June 22, 2020, at China's Lop Nur test site.

On February 6, United States Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno accused China of conducting nuclear weapons tests that achieved supercritical yields, including one test on June 22, 2020, at China's Lop Nur test site.

Christopher Yeaw, assistant secretary of state for arms control and nonproliferation, stated that a remote seismic station in Kazakhstan detected a magnitude 2.75 seismic event on June 22, 2020, originating approximately 450 miles away at Lop Nur.

Christopher Yeaw, assistant secretary of state for arms control and nonproliferation, stated that a remote seismic station in Kazakhstan detected a magnitude 2.75 seismic event on June 22, 2020, originating approximately 450 miles away at Lop Nur.

China's foreign ministry has denied the allegations of nuclear testing, calling them "outright lies" and stating that Beijing continues to uphold a voluntary moratorium on nuclear tests that has been in place since 1996.

China's foreign ministry has denied the allegations of nuclear testing, calling them "outright lies" and stating that Beijing continues to uphold a voluntary moratorium on nuclear tests that has been in place since 1996.

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization stated it did not detect any event consistent with the characteristics of a nuclear weapon test, noting its systems have limits in detecting very low-yield explosions below 551 tons of TNT.

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization stated it did not detect any event consistent with the characteristics of a nuclear weapon test, noting its systems have limits in detecting very low-yield explosions below 551 tons of TNT.

President Donald Trump stated in October that the United States would start testing nuclear weapons on an equal basis as China and Russia. Yeaw confirmed the administration is prepared to resume low-yield nuclear testing if needed.

President Donald Trump stated in October that the United States would start testing nuclear weapons on an equal basis as China and Russia. Yeaw confirmed the administration is prepared to resume low-yield nuclear testing if needed.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the United States and Russia expired on February 5, 2026. Trump is offering China strategic stability negotiations aimed at preventing a potential arms race, according to Yeaw.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the United States and Russia expired on February 5, 2026. Trump is offering China strategic stability negotiations aimed at preventing a potential arms race, according to Yeaw.

US Accuses China of Nuclear Tests; Beijing Denies Claims

US revealsAccuses newChina details of allegedNuclear ChineseTests; nuclearBeijing testDenies Claims

The Controversies

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