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Costs from Trump's tariffs paid mainly by US firms and consumers, NY Fed says

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Jean-Baptiste Wautier

"The prices of electronics would definitely go up."

The tariffs will "increase prices for everything that's imported, and that includes food."

Trump tariffs would "raise prices even more for consumers."

"I am extremely confident that food will get more expensive."

Trump's tariffs would "increase the cost of US manufacturing."

"Trump is about to make every American pay even more for coffee."

"Tariffs would disrupt supply chains and increase production costs."

Will the Proposed Trump Tariffs Increase the Price of Groceries/Goods/Services?

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that U.S. firms and consumers bore nearly 90% of the economic burden from tariffs imposed in 2025, with the average tariff rate rising from 2.6% at the start of the year to 13% by year's end. The study analyzed import data through November 2025 and found that foreign exporters largely maintained their prices rather than absorbing tariff costs.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that U.S. firms and consumers bore nearly 90% of the economic burden from tariffs imposed in 2025, with the average tariff rate rising from 2.6% at the start of the year to 13% by year's end. The study analyzed import data through November 2025 and found that foreign exporters largely maintained their prices rather than absorbing tariff costs.

Research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found near-complete pass-through of tariffs to U.S. import prices, with American importers and consumers bearing 96% of tariff costs. The institute analyzed 25 million transactions and found that exporters in countries like Brazil and India did not lower prices, instead reducing trade volumes.

Research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found near-complete pass-through of tariffs to U.S. import prices, with American importers and consumers bearing 96% of tariff costs. The institute analyzed 25 million transactions and found that exporters in countries like Brazil and India did not lower prices, instead reducing trade volumes.

China's share of U.S. imports fell below 10% in the first eleven months of 2025, down 5 percentage points from 2024, while Mexico and Vietnam gained the most market share. The shift occurred as companies reorganized supply chains in response to higher tariffs, with China now facing the highest tariffs among major U.S. trading partners.

China's share of U.S. imports fell below 10% in the first eleven months of 2025, down 5 percentage points from 2024, while Mexico and Vietnam gained the most market share. The shift occurred as companies reorganized supply chains in response to higher tariffs, with China now facing the highest tariffs among major U.S. trading partners.

The Tax Foundation calculated that increased tariffs in 2025 cost the average American household $1,000, with projected costs rising to $1,300 in 2026. The organization characterized tariffs as a new tax on consumers and noted the effective tariff rate of 9.9% represents the highest average rate since 1946.

The Tax Foundation calculated that increased tariffs in 2025 cost the average American household $1,000, with projected costs rising to $1,300 in 2026. The organization characterized tariffs as a new tax on consumers and noted the effective tariff rate of 9.9% represents the highest average rate since 1946.

Tariff collections nationwide climbed 300% since President Trump's return to office, with January collections hitting $30.4 billion. The administration has promoted tariffs as a strategy to fund domestic priorities and chip away at the nation's $38 trillion debt, while several states with competitive Senate races face substantial tariff burdens.

Tariff collections nationwide climbed 300% since President Trump's return to office, with January collections hitting $30.4 billion. The administration has promoted tariffs as a strategy to fund domestic priorities and chip away at the nation's $38 trillion debt, while several states with competitive Senate races face substantial tariff burdens.

Six House Republicans joined Democrats in voting to repeal tariffs on Canada, marking a rare rebuke of the administration's trade policy. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of the tariffs, with lower courts previously determining that use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as the basis for tariffs was an overstep.

Six House Republicans joined Democrats in voting to repeal tariffs on Canada, marking a rare rebuke of the administration's trade policy. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of the tariffs, with lower courts previously determining that use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as the basis for tariffs was an overstep.

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Costs from Trump's tariffs paid mainly by US firms and consumers, NY Fed says

Economic conditions & trends

United States of America

U.S. Consumers Bear 90% of Tariff Costs as Rates Hit 13%

U.S. Consumers Bear 90% of Tariff Costs as Rates Hit 13%

CostsU.S. fromConsumers Trump'sBear tariffs90% paidof mainlyTariff byCosts USas firmsRates andHit consumers, NY Fed says13%

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U.S. Consumers Bear 90% of Tariff Costs as Rates Hit 13%

CostsU.S. fromConsumers Trump'sBear tariffs90% paidof mainlyTariff byCosts USas firmsRates andHit consumers, NY Fed says13%

The Controversies

Handfield

Snipes

Tapp

Friedberg

Hanke

Ocasio-Cortez

Wautier

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