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Metaculus

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

The Pheu Thai Party announced on Friday that it will support the Bhumjaithai Party in forming a new government, with Pheu Thai Secretary-General Prasert Jantararuangtong making the announcement alongside Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul following talks at Bhumjaithai headquarters.

The Pheu Thai Party announced on Friday that it will support the Bhumjaithai Party in forming a new government, with Pheu Thai Secretary-General Prasert Jantararuangtong making the announcement alongside Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul following talks at Bhumjaithai headquarters.

<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/thailands-bhumjaithai-party-wins-election-defying-polls">Bhumjaithai secured 193 seats in Sunday's election</a>, making it the largest party in the 500-seat lower house, while Pheu Thai won 74 seats. The People's Party won 118 seats and will lead the opposition after indicating it would not join the government.

Bhumjaithai secured 193 seats in Sunday's election, making it the largest party in the 500-seat lower house, while Pheu Thai won 74 seats. The People's Party won 118 seats and will lead the opposition after indicating it would not join the government.

The emerging coalition commands 276 seats in the House of Representatives, comprising 193 seats for Bhumjaithai, 74 for Pheu Thai and seats from several smaller parties. A government requires at least 251 seats to form a majority.

Thai Enquirer

The emerging coalition commands 276 seats in the House of Representatives, comprising 193 seats for Bhumjaithai, 74 for Pheu Thai and seats from several smaller parties. A government requires at least 251 seats to form a majority.

Anutin said both sides agreed to leave past misunderstandings behind and focus on moving forward with the public interest as their primary goal. The two parties had previously partnered after the 2023 election, when Pheu Thai led the coalition.

Anutin said both sides agreed to leave past misunderstandings behind and focus on moving forward with the public interest as their primary goal. The two parties had previously partnered after the 2023 election, when Pheu Thai led the coalition.

Six smaller parties with a combined eight seats have pledged to join the Bhumjaithai-led coalition. Further negotiations with additional parties, including Kla Tham and the Democrat Party, remain possible to strengthen the coalition.

Six smaller parties with a combined eight seats have pledged to join the Bhumjaithai-led coalition. Further negotiations with additional parties, including Kla Tham and the Democrat Party, remain possible to strengthen the coalition.

The Election Commission has 60 days from election day to officially certify the results before Parliament can convene and elect a new prime minister. Discussions on government formation are taking place to prevent a prolonged political vacuum.

The Election Commission has 60 days from election day to officially certify the results before Parliament can convene and elect a new prime minister. Discussions on government formation are taking place to prevent a prolonged political vacuum.

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Bhumjaithai secured 193 seats in Sunday's election, making it the largest party in the 500-seat lower house, while Pheu Thai won 74 seats. The People's Party won 118 seats and will lead the opposition after indicating it would not join the government.

Anutin said both sides agreed to leave past misunderstandings behind, focusing on moving forward with the public interest as their primary goal. The two parties had previously partnered after the 2023 election when Pheu Thai led the coalition.

Anutin said both sides agreed to leave past misunderstandings behind, focusing on moving forward with the public interest as their primary goal. The two parties had previously partnered after the 2023 election when Pheu Thai led the coalition.

Bhumjaithai's landslide victory with nearly 200 seats proves voters chose stability and nationalist strength over risky reform fantasies. Anutin transformed a regional party into a nationwide force by defending Thai sovereignty during the Cambodia conflict and forging smart alliances with established political dynasties. The progressive opposition crashed hard, losing its parliamentary plurality and exposing that its Bangkok bubble never built real provincial support.

Bhumjaithai's landslide victory with nearly 200 seats proves voters chose stability and nationalist strength over risky reform fantasies. Anutin transformed a regional party into a nationwide force by defending Thai sovereignty during the Cambodia conflict and forging smart alliances with established political dynasties. The progressive opposition crashed hard, losing its parliamentary plurality and exposing that its Bangkok bubble never built real provincial support.

Pheu Thai's decision to support Bhumjaithai in forming government demonstrates mature coalition-building that prioritizes ending political instability over partisan grudges. Both parties agreed to leave past misunderstandings behind and focus on the public interest without drawing divisive lines in state administration. This alliance prevents a prolonged political vacuum and brings experienced leadership together to move Thailand forward.

Pheu Thai's decision to support Bhumjaithai in forming government demonstrates mature coalition-building that prioritizes ending political instability over partisan grudges. Both parties agreed to leave past misunderstandings behind and focus on the public interest without drawing divisive lines in state administration. This alliance prevents a prolonged political vacuum and brings experienced leadership together to move Thailand forward.

Khaosod English

Thailand-Cambodia Conflict

Pheu Thai Backs Bhumjaithai to Form New Thai Government

Politics

Thailand

The Bhumjaithai–Pheu Thai coalition undermines electoral accountability, forcing uneasy rivals into an opportunistic alliance that dangerously blurs traditional ideological lines. The pact clearly reflects short‑term political expediency rather than genuine democratic reform, potentially sidelining key opposition voices, weakening institutional checks and reinforcing entrenched elite networks. Apparent stability may come at the high cost of meaningful democratic change.

The Bhumjaithai–Pheu Thai coalition undermines electoral accountability, forcing uneasy rivals into an opportunistic alliance that dangerously blurs traditional ideological lines. The pact clearly reflects short‑term political expediency rather than genuine democratic reform, potentially sidelining key opposition voices, weakening institutional checks and reinforcing entrenched elite networks. Apparent stability may come at the high cost of meaningful democratic change.

Pheu Thai's decision to support Bhumjaithai in forming the government demonstrates mature coalition-building that prioritizes ending political instability over partisan grudges. Both parties agreed to leave past misunderstandings behind and focus on the public interest without drawing divisive lines in state administration. This alliance prevents a prolonged political vacuum and brings experienced leadership together to move Thailand forward.

Pheu Thai's decision to support Bhumjaithai in forming the government demonstrates mature coalition-building that prioritizes ending political instability over partisan grudges. Both parties agreed to leave past misunderstandings behind and focus on the public interest without drawing divisive lines in state administration. This alliance prevents a prolonged political vacuum and brings experienced leadership together to move Thailand forward.

There's a 38% chance that Thailand will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 38% chance that Thailand will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pheu Thai Backs Bhumjaithai to Form New Thai Government

Pheu Thai Backs Bhumjaithai to Form New Thai Government

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Pheu Thai Backs Bhumjaithai to Form New Thai Government

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