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Snapshot 7:Fri, Feb 13, 2026 10:31:38 PM GMT last edited by Nick

Israeli Reservist Charged for Betting on Military Operations

Israeli Reservist Charged for Betting on Military Operations

Are prediction markets dangerous vehicles for manipulation or superior tools for aggregating distributed knowledge?
Israeli Reservist Charged for Betting on Military Operations
Above: A photo illustration of the Polymarket logo. Image credit: Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

The Spin

Prediction markets like Polymarket are dangerous vehicles for infodemic chaos that drown rational discourse in a tsunami of biased, constantly shifting information. These platforms amplify crypto-investor biases, enable market manipulation by wealthy actors placing massive bets, and create self-fulfilling prophecies that distort democratic processes. The IDF should dig deeper and root out other participants in its ranks.

Prediction markets aggregate distributed knowledge faster and more accurately than failing traditional institutions, outperforming polls and expert forecasts by forcing participants to risk real money on their beliefs. As trust in polls, media and government collapses to historic lows, these markets fill the vacuum by providing transparent, accountable real-time signals that reward accuracy and punish wishful thinking.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that Polymarket will launch a token by March 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0