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Snapshot 2:Fri, Feb 6, 2026 6:49:01 PM GMT last edited by KateHennig

Russian Intelligence Chief Shot in Moscow

Russian Intelligence Chief Shot in Moscow

Is this Kyiv trying to disrupt negotiations or is it a failure on the part of Moscow?
Russian Intelligence Chief Shot in Moscow
Above: People walk along a bridge over the Moskva river in Moscow on Feb. 4. Image credit: Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

While Ukraine's involvement has yet to be officially confirmed, this latest assassination attempt highlights the lengths Zelenskyy's regime will go to in an attempt to disrupt the ongoing negotiations with Russia.

This string of shock killings has aggravated a number of Russians who are asking questions about the steps being taken by the state to protect key military officials.

There'sRegardless aof 23%whether chanceKyiv thatwas theinvolved nextin Russianthis leaderor willnot, disapprovegiven ofthat theRussia’s Russianfull-scale invasion of Ukraine is an illegal act of aggression under international law, accordingUkraine tois thejustified Metaculusin predictiontargeting communitythose actively directing or enabling that aggression. Removing key military and political actors responsible for planning and sustaining an unlawful war constitutes an extension of Ukraine’s self-defense against ongoing threats to its sovereignty.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 23% chance that the next Russian leader will disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0