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When Will the Russia-Ukraine War End?

Emmanuel Bonne, the political advisor to French President Emmanuel Macron, this week traveled to Moscow for talks with Russian officials, multiple reports confirmed late on Wednesday.

Emmanuel Bonne, the political advisor to French President Emmanuel Macron, this week traveled to Moscow for talks with Russian officials, multiple reports confirmed late on Wednesday.

The meeting followed a series of public remarks exchanged by French and Russian officials dating back to December when Macron, speaking to reporters following an EU leaders summit in Brussels, said that in light of U.S. peace efforts, it would be "useful" for Europe and Ukraine to re-engage with Russia.

The meeting followed a series of public remarks exchanged by French and Russian officials dating back to December when Macron, speaking to reporters following an EU leaders summit in Brussels, said that in light of U.S. peace efforts, it would be "useful" for Europe and Ukraine to re-engage with Russia.

Days later, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin "expressed readiness to engage in dialogue" with Macron. In response, the Élysée Palace said: "It is welcome that the Kremlin has publicly agreed to this approach," adding that it would decide in the coming days on how best to move forward.

Days later, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin "expressed readiness to engage in dialogue" with Macron. In response, the Élysée Palace said: "It is welcome that the Kremlin has publicly agreed to this approach," adding that it would decide in the coming days on how best to move forward.

On Tuesday, as Bonne was reportedly in Moscow, Macron made no mention of the trip but said that "discussions are taking place at a technical level" to restart the dialogue between France and Russia. He added: "In this context, it is important that Europeans restore their own channels of communication."

On Tuesday, as Bonne was reportedly in Moscow, Macron made no mention of the trip but said that "discussions are taking place at a technical level" to restart the dialogue between France and Russia. He added: "In this context, it is important that Europeans restore their own channels of communication."

According to sources who spoke to Reuters and France's L'Express magazine, Bonne met with his Russian counterpart Yury Ushakov, a top aide to Putin who — according to reports — has played an influential role in attempts to mediate an end to the Ukraine war.

According to sources who spoke to Reuters and France's L'Express magazine, Bonne met with his Russian counterpart Yury Ushakov, a top aide to Putin who — according to reports — has played an influential role in attempts to mediate an end to the Ukraine war.

At the time of reporting, there was no comment from the Kremlin about the meeting. A statement from the Élysée Palace said: "As the president said during his doorstep [on Tuesday], discussions exist at a technical level in full transparency and in consultation with President Zelenskyy and with the main European colleagues."

At the time of reporting, there was no comment from the Kremlin about the meeting. A statement from the Élysée Palace said: "As the president said during his doorstep [on Tuesday], discussions exist at a technical level in full transparency and in consultation with President Zelenskyy and with the main European colleagues."

European leaders have realized that with U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to find peace, their perspectives risk being marginalized unless they open a direct line of communication to Russia.

European leaders have realized that with U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to find peace, their perspectives risk being marginalized unless they open a direct line of communication to Russia.

There have indeed between contacts between French and Russian officials at the working level. There is the possibility of high-level contact but there is nothing noteworthy to report at this stage.

There have indeed between contacts between French and Russian officials at the working level. There is the possibility of high-level contact but there is nothing noteworthy to report at this stage.

There is a 4% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being president of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 4% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being president of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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