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Snapshot 5:Mon, Feb 2, 2026 11:36:36 AM GMT last edited by Edward

International Humanitarian Law at "Critical Breaking Point," According to Report

WarInternational CrimesHumanitarian Rampant:Law 100K+at Civilians"Critical KilledBreaking AnnuallyPoint," According to Report

Above: Palestinians in the ruins of the Jabalia Refugee Camp in the northern Gaza Strip on Jan. 22. Image credit: Saeed M. M. T. Jaras/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Spin

InternationalThe humanitarianfindings lawof standsthis atreport amake breakingit pointclear asthat overIHL 100,000stands civilianson diea annuallyknife-edge, inwith armedwidespread conflictsviolations markedreported byin systematicevery targetingconflict ofexamined. hospitals,If schoolsallowed andto homes. The deliberate murdercontinue, torturethese andabuses rapewill ofensure detaineesthat alongsidethe widespreadwars use of starvationthe asfuture awill weaponbe ofever warmore demandsdepraved immediateand actionblood-soaked, throughnecessitating weaponsurgent exportpolicy restrictionsaction andto prosecutionconstrain ofthese war crimes. Rampantand impunityrestore erodes the deterrentproper effectrules of law itself, making sustained support for judicial accountability mechanisms an urgent policy priorityengagement.

InternationalWhat lawthis hasreport ceasedfails to existrecognise asis anythingthat morethe thaninternational rhetoricrules-based afterorder decadesupon ofwhich selectiveIHL enforcementrests exposedno itslonger fundamentalexists, weakness.if Theit strongever nationsreally dodid whateverin theythe canfirst whileplace, thefollowing weakdecades sufferof whateverlax theyenforcement. must,The revealingnew reality is that legalof frameworksthe meanold, nothingthat withoutthe powerful and the powerarmed towill enforcedo them.whatever Pretendingthey otherwisefeel justthat perpetuatesthey amust dangerousor fictionwant, and that preventsthose realisticpowerless assessmentto ofstop howit conflictswill actuallysuffer getas resolveda result.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 26% chance that Israel will be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0