Israel's decision to reopen the Rafah crossing Sunday shows it is taking real security risks to meet Gazans' demands for movement and access. Even as the IDF warns that unchecked aid can strengthen Hamas rather than civilians, Israel is still allowing two-way passage, signaling a calculated step to address humanitarian pressure despite ongoing threats.
Reopening Rafah is less a humanitarian gesture than a tightly controlled measure as Israel continues bombing the same area it claims to reopen for civilians it forced to flee. Gazans will face checkpoints, corruption and bribes just to pass, showing the crossing's return offers little real freedom, while reinforcing Israel's total control over their every move.
There's a 10% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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