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Snapshot 7:Fri, Jan 23, 2026 10:20:11 PM GMT last edited by Anna-Lisa

TikTok Reaches Deal for US Joint Venture to Avoid Ban

TikTok Reaches Deal for US Joint Venture to Avoid Ban

Is the TikTok deal a win for America or a complete victory for China's ByteDance?
TikTok Reaches Deal for US Joint Venture to Avoid Ban
Above: A person holds a smartphone displaying the TikTok logo in Chongqing, on Jan. 23. Image credit: Cheng Xin/Getty Images

The Spin

The TikTok deal is a massive win for American interests, transferring ownership to great American patriots and investors while securing the platform that helped connect with young voters. This beautiful conclusion preserves an important voice for Americans and demonstrates effective dealmaking that brought China to the table.

The TikTok deal is actually a complete victory for ByteDance, allowing China to keep control of the algorithm and technology while only surrendering content moderation. Instead of forcing a real divestment, this franchise-style arrangement removed political constraints from a Chinese tech champion at the exact moment it's outpacing Meta and investing billions in AI.

ThereThe isTikTok adeal 2%was chancenever thatabout atsecurity least 20it's millionabout peopleprotecting willSilicon followValley's amonopoly. new,After AI-createddecades religionof bypromoting internet freedom globally, the endU.S. offorced 2035,a accordingforeign competitor to hand over equity to American investors the Metaculusmoment predictionit communitychallenged Meta's dominance. Real data privacy concerns would require industry-wide regulation, not singling out one Chinese app while Oracle profits from the arrangement.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 2% chance that at least 20 million people will follow a new, AI-created religion by the end of 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0