Metaculus

Conservative UK PM on Jan 1, 2030

hansard.parliament.uk

Chineseembassy

Guardian

Royal Mint Court residents plan legal challenge if Chinese ‘mega embassy’ in London approved

Britain approves ‘mega’ Chinese embassy in London despite national security fears

Starmer on horns of dilemma over China’s seven-year mega-embassy saga

People's Daily

Continued Chinese development boosts opportunities for China-UK relations: ambassador

China Daily

Chinese Embassy: UKs accusation malicious slander

ChinaSelect

Express.co.uk

Keir Starmer faces furious backlash over Chinese mega-embassy

GOV.UK

BBC News

MPs step up calls to block Chinese mega-embassy

Tower Hamlets refuses Chinese Embassy planning applications

GB News

'Weak' Labour caves to Chinese pressure as Starmer admits green-lighting central London 'super-embassy'

UK approves plans for Chinese mega-embassy in London

Barrons

How Big Is China Planned Mega Embassy In London 195Aa16E

Sky News

Everything we know about China's new 'super embassy'

UK approves Chinese mega embassy in London after reassurances from spy chiefs

The Standard

China's controversial super-embassy in London is given go-ahead by Government despite security fears

The Diplomat

Chinas London Super Embassy Would Be A Super Surveillance Hub

U.K. approves a 'mega' Chinese Embassy in London despite criticism of security risks

Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

Global Times

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

John Rentoul

Chris Hopkins

Wes Streeting

Lee Harris

The Daily Express

John Rees

George Galloway

Samara Gill

Isabel Oakeshott

Esther McVey

Charlie Rowley

Daily Mail

"The way things are going, just a year in — I genuinely think he will leave. I think he will be forced out."

"Starmer might have to go in months."

"I predict that before this year is out, Keir Starmer will be out."

"I don't think he will survive a year [as prime minister]."

"Of course [he will be prime minister till 2029]."

How Long Will Keir Starmer Be UK's Prime Minister?

The U.K. government approved plans for a vast Chinese embassy in east London on Tuesday. The decision, announced in a 240-page document, came amid opposition from local residents in the area, as well as criticism that the site could open up Britain to a range of surveillance and espionage risks.

The U.K. government approved plans for a vast Chinese embassy in east London on Tuesday. The decision, announced in a 240-page document, came amid opposition from local residents in the area, as well as criticism that the site could open up Britain to a range of surveillance and espionage risks.

Disputes about the so-called "mega embassy" date back to 2018 when the People's Republic of China bought the 20,000-square-foot site at Royal Mint Court near the Tower of London for £255 million ($342.9 million). Since, the local Tower Hamlets council has twice rejected plans to convert the plot — first in December 2022 and then in December 2024.

Disputes about the so-called "mega embassy" date back to 2018 when the People's Republic of China bought the 20,000-square-foot site at Royal Mint Court near the Tower of London for £255 million ($342.9 million). Since, the local Tower Hamlets council has twice rejected plans to convert the plot — first in December 2022 and then in December 2024.

A planning application was then resubmitted in July 2024, soon after Labour's election victory, with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping urging British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to personally intervene in their first call a month later. Labour then took the decision out of the hands of the local council.

A planning application was then resubmitted in July 2024, soon after Labour's election victory, with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping urging British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to personally intervene in their first call a month later. Labour then took the decision out of the hands of the local council.

While a public inquiry on the matter was held last year, the plans have come under fire from a range of groups including Chinese dissidents from minority groups who argued the embassy could be a hub for repression, similar to when a protestor was detained and beaten in China's consulate in Manchester in 2022.

While a public inquiry on the matter was held last year, the plans have come under fire from a range of groups including Chinese dissidents from minority groups who argued the embassy could be a hub for repression, similar to when a protestor was detained and beaten in China's consulate in Manchester in 2022.

Meanwhile, pointing to a report in the Telegraph in which it was revealed that the embassy sits beside sensitive fiber-optic cables, Conservative ministers argued the embassy would give China a "launch-pad for economic warfare."

Meanwhile, pointing to a report in the Telegraph in which it was revealed that the embassy sits beside sensitive fiber-optic cables, Conservative ministers argued the embassy would give China a "launch-pad for economic warfare."

In making its decision on Tuesday, the government published a letter from the heads of MI5 and Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) —&nbsp;the U.K.'s internal security and signals intelligence services — in which it was argued that the agencies were well-versed in managing security risks around embassies, further arguing that China's consolidation from seven sites to one makes monitoring of the risks easier.

In making its decision on Tuesday, the government published a letter from the heads of MI5 and Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) — the U.K.'s internal security and signals intelligence services — in which it was argued that the agencies were well-versed in managing security risks around embassies, further arguing that China's consolidation from seven sites to one makes monitoring of the risks easier.

In making this decision, the Labour government consulted widely with the Home and Foreign Office, as well as several branches of Britain's intelligence community, all of whom agreed that the risks could be managed and mitigated. A decision such as this would not have been taken without a robust review and that's exactly what was done in this instance.

In making this decision, the Labour government consulted widely with the Home and Foreign Office, as well as several branches of Britain's intelligence community, all of whom agreed that the risks could be managed and mitigated. A decision such as this would not have been taken without a robust review and that's exactly what was done in this instance.

This was disgraceful act of cowardice from a Labour government and Prime Minister utterly devoid of backbone. The first duty of any government is to keep the country safe but Starmer seems more concerned about getting Beijing's approval. He cannot be trusted to lead Britain on the world stage.

This was disgraceful act of cowardice from a Labour government and Prime Minister utterly devoid of backbone. The first duty of any government is to keep the country safe but Starmer seems more concerned about getting Beijing's approval. He cannot be trusted to lead Britain on the world stage.

There is a 21% that the U.K. will have a Conservative PM at the beginning of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 21% that the U.K. will have a Conservative PM at the beginning of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

UK Approves Chinese 'Mega Embassy' in London

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

Rowley

News

Galloway

Gill

Streeting

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