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Snapshot 6:Mon, Jan 19, 2026 10:23:31 AM GMT last edited by Harish Chander

China's Population Falls 3.4M, Births Hit Lowest Since 1949

China's Population Falls 3.4M, Births Hit Lowest Since 1949

China's Population Falls 3.4M, Births Hit Lowest Since 1949
Above: **Watermarked Getty Image. Kindly Replace** Children play with bubbles at the Second Experimental Kindergarten in Yantai High-tech Zone, East China's Shandong province, May 29, 2024. Image credit: CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

The Spin

China's demographic shift isn't a crisis but an opportunity for transformation. The declining population accelerates economic restructuring toward innovation-driven growth, with R&D investment surging 233-fold since 1991 and labor productivity jumping 5.7 percent. Pro-family policies are working — marriages rebounded 8.5 percent in early 2025, and comprehensive support systems spanning childcare subsidies to elderly care services are unlocking a projected 30 trillion yuan silver economy by 2035.

China faces civilizational collapse as its population plummets toward 330 million by 2100, the steepest peacetime decline in history. No country has successfully reversed fertility through government policy, and Beijing's pronatalist measures like mandated epidurals and IVF subsidies miss the real problem — young people trapped in economic stagnation, gender inequality, and deep societal pessimism are choosing to be the "last generation." This closing demographic window may push an ambitious regime toward dangerous external aggression before it's too late.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that China's total population will be 1.16 billion in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0