The Asahi Shimbun

Chinas population drops for fourth year as fewer babies born

Newsweek

The End of China As a Great Power: Population Collapse | Opinion

China's population falls for a fourth straight year, with births at lowest in decades

Moneycontrol

Chinas birth rate hits record low since 1949 as population drops by 3.4 million

BBC News

China's birth rate hits record low as population continues to shrink

South China Morning Post

Chinas demographic alarms blare as births hit historic low and population shrinks again

National Bureau of Statistics of China

National Economy Pushed Forward with Innovation-led and High-quality Development and Expected Targets Achieved Successfully in 2025

Metaculus

What will China's total population be in these years?

Think Global Health

China's Failing Bid to Reverse Population Decline

XINHUA

China sees rebound in marriages as policy support shows impact

Bloomberg.com

China Birthrate Hits Lowest Since 1949 In Blow To Baby Drive

People's Daily

News Analysis: When less means more -- why China's demographic changes won't derail its economy

The Mainichi

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The Canberra Times

China's population falls for a fourth straight year

Bitget

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Financial Times

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Guardian

Chinas population falls again as birthrate hits record low

Defence_Index

Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

Global Times

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Centre for Economics and Business Research

Capital Economics

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

George Magnus

Eswar Prasad

Nathan Sheets

Desmond Lachman

Statista

Rob Subbaraman

JCER

Chris Giles

"China's nominal gross domestic product is unlikely to surpass that of the U.S. in the next few decades."

"This idea of China becoming the world's biggest economy may not happen, actually."

"China probably won't ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis."

"The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining."

"China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035."

"China will overtake the US as the world's top economy in about 2035 with a high probability."

"[T]he size of China's economy in USD terms will overtake the US in 2028."

"China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028."

Will China's GDP Overtake the US, And If So When?

China's population declined by 3.39 million in 2025 to reach 1.405 billion, marking the fourth consecutive year of population decrease. The total number of births fell to 7.92 million, down 17% from 9.54 million in 2024, representing the lowest birth count since 1949.

China's population declined by 3.39 million in 2025 to reach 1.405 billion, marking the fourth consecutive year of population decrease. The total number of births fell to 7.92 million, down 17% from 9.54 million in 2024, representing the lowest birth count since 1949.

The birth rate dropped to 5.63 per 1,000 people in 2025, while the death rate reached 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968. Deaths rose to 11.31 million from 10.93 million in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The birth rate dropped to 5.63 per 1,000 people in 2025, while the death rate reached 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968. Deaths rose to 11.31 million from 10.93 million in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

People aged over 60 now account for approximately 23% of China's total population. By 2035, the number of over-60s is projected to reach 400 million, roughly equal to the combined populations of the United States and Italy.

People aged over 60 now account for approximately 23% of China's total population. By 2035, the number of over-60s is projected to reach 400 million, roughly equal to the combined populations of the United States and Italy.

China's urbanization rate stood at 68% in 2025, up from about 43% in 2005. The movement of large numbers of people from rural areas to cities has compounded demographic challenges, as raising children is more expensive in urban areas.

China's urbanization rate stood at 68% in 2025, up from about 43% in 2005. The movement of large numbers of people from rural areas to cities has compounded demographic challenges, as raising children is more expensive in urban areas.

Marriage registrations plunged by a fifth in 2024 to 6.1 million couples, down from 7.68 million in 2023. In May 2025, China began allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country rather than only their place of residence.

Marriage registrations plunged by a fifth in 2024 to 6.1 million couples, down from 7.68 million in 2023. In May 2025, China began allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country rather than only their place of residence.

Beijing faces potential costs of around 180 billion yuan to boost births, including a national child subsidy and a pledge that women will have no out-of-pocket pregnancy expenses in 2026. China's fertility rate stands at approximately 1 birth per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement rate.

Beijing faces potential costs of around 180 billion yuan to boost births, including a national child subsidy and a pledge that women will have no out-of-pocket pregnancy expenses in 2026. China's fertility rate stands at approximately 1 birth per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement rate.

China's Population Falls 3.4M, Births Hit Lowest Since 1949

China's registersPopulation lowestFalls number3.4M, ofBirths birthsHit sinceLowest recordsSince began1949

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China's Population Falls 3.4M, Births Hit Lowest Since 1949

China's registersPopulation lowestFalls number3.4M, ofBirths birthsHit sinceLowest recordsSince began1949

The Controversies

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

JCER

Magnus

Economics

Prasad

Sachs

Times

Subbaraman

Research

Go Deeper

Articles on this story

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